1961—2016年塔城地区≥10℃积温的时空变化特征  

Spatiotemporal Variation of Accumulated Value of Temperature ≥10 ℃ in Tacheng During the Period of 1961-2016

作　　者：康丽娟[1] 巴特尔·巴克 冯丽晔 葛怡成 萨吉旦·阿卜杜克日木 KANG Li-juan;Batur Bake;FENG Li-ye;GE Yi-cheng;Sajidan Abudukerimu(College of Prataculture and Environment Sciences,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,Xinjiang,China;Urumqi Meteorological Station for Animal Husbandry,Urumqi 830052,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院 [2]乌鲁木齐市牧业气象试验站

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2018年第4期864-871,共8页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家国际科技合作计划项目“亚洲中部干旱区应对气候变化的生态系统管理”(2010DFA92720-13)

摘　　要：利用塔城地区6个气象站1961—2016年的逐日气温数据,采用气候倾向率、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和Arc GIS空间插值法,对该区≥10℃积温的时空变化特征进行分析。结果显示：研究区≥10℃初终日、持续日数和积温分别以-0.12 d·（10a）^-1、0.15 d·（10a）^-1、0.27 d·（10a）^-1、75.39℃·（10a）^-1的倾向率呈提前、推迟、延长、增多的趋势,其中≥10℃终日、持续日数和积温均发生突变;≥10℃积温分布主要集中于2 450-3 950℃,研究区南部≥10℃积温较北部高;阶段Ⅱ（1995-2016年）和阶段Ⅰ（1961-1994年）相比,各地≥10℃积温均有所增加,并且2 450-3 150℃的区域面积占总面积的比例有明显的减少趋势,3 150-3 450℃、3 450-3 950℃、3 950-4 150℃和4 150-4 250℃占的区域面积占总面积的比例均有所增长,其中3 150-3 450℃所占面积比增长最明显。In this paper,the spatiotemporal variation of the accumulated value of temperature ≥10 ℃ in Tacheng was analyzed using the methods of linear climate tendency,cumulative anomalies,Mann-kendall mutation test and Arc GIS space interpolation based on the daily average temperature data from 6 meteorological stations in Tacheng during the period from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that the first date,last date,duration and accumulated value of temperature ≥10 ℃ in the study area were changed by-0. 12 d·（ 10 a）^-1,0. 15 d·（ 10 a）^-1,0. 27 d·（ 10 a）^-1 and 75. 39 ℃ ·（ 10 a）^-1 respectively. Moreover,the mutations of the last date,duration and accumulated value of temperature ≥10 ℃ occurred. The accumulated value of temperature ≥10 ℃ in the study area varied in a range from 2 450 ℃ to 3 950 ℃,and it was higher in the south than that in the north. Compared with the period Ⅱ（ 1995-2016） and period Ⅰ（ 1961-1994）,the accumulated value of temperature ≥10 ℃ increased to some extent,the proportion of the area with accumulated value（ 2 450-3 150 ℃） of temperature≥10 ℃ was reduced obviously,but the proportions of the areas with accumulated values of 3 150-3 450 ℃,3 950-4 150 ℃ and 4 150-4 250 ℃ were increased.

关 键 词：≥10℃积温 MANN-KENDALL检验 时空变化 持续日数 气候倾向率 塔城地区 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]