交通设施建设完善与消费转移——来自杭州湾跨海大桥周边城市的经验证据  

The Improvement of Transport Facilities Construction and Consumption Transfer: Empirical Evidences from the Surrounding Cities around Hangzhou Bay Cross-Sea Bridge

作　　者：黄先明[1] 肖挺[1] HUANG Xian-ming;XIAO Ting(Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学国际经贸学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《当代财经》2018年第7期14-24,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"组织生态视角下制造企业进入退出服务化组织种群影响因素的实证研究"(71762012);江西省教育厅科技项目"经济政府不确定性对国际资源价格波动的冲击效应研究:事实;机制和测度"(GJJ170341)

摘　　要：通过对杭州湾跨海大桥两端的宁波与嘉兴两市在大桥通车前后社会消费品零售额的变化进行的研究,分析交通基础设施对沿线城市消费的影响。通过合成控制法对控制组城市进行赋权,从而模拟出假设在未通车的反事实状况下两市的社会消费品零售额。研究发现大桥通车后的宁波与嘉兴两市的实际社会消费品零售额没有达到理论上未通车时本应达到的水平,即出现了消费流出的问题。大桥通车使得宁波的社会消费品零售额年均流失4.1%,嘉兴为7.7%。这表明交通设施完善的"虹吸效应"存在。Through the study of the changes of the retail sales value of social consumption in the two cities of Ningbo and Jiaxing on both sides of Hangzhou Bay Cross-Sea Bridge before and after its opening, this paper makes an analysis of the impact of transportation infrastructure on the consumption of cities along the route. By employing the synthetic control method, the cities in the controlled group are given the power to simulate the retail sales value of social consumer goods in the two cities under the counter factual conditions that the bridge is assumed not opened to traffic. The findings show that since the bridge was opened to traffic the actual retail sales value of social consumer goods in Ningbo and Jiaxing has failed to reach the level that should have been reached when it was not opened to traffic in theory, namely, there is an issue of consumption outflow. The bridge opening to traffic has resulted in the loss of retail sales value of social consumer goods in Ningbo by 4.1%, and in Jiaxing by 7.7%. This proves that there exists a ＂siphon effect＂ in the improvement of transport facilities.

关 键 词：跨海大桥 虹吸效应 消费流失 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F72[经济管理—产业经济]