基于改进突变级数法的农产品冷链物流风险评估模型  

Risk assessment model of agricultural products cold chain logistics based on the improved catastrophe progression method

作　　者：张浩[1] 邱斌[2] 唐孟娇 何明珂[1] Zhang Hao;Qiu Bin;Tang Mengjiao;He Mingke(Business School,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;School of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学商学院,北京100048 [2]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [3]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2018年第3期412-421,共10页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(15BGL202);北京市社会科学基金资助项目(17GLB013);北京市教育委员会社科计划资助项目(SM201410011002);北京市教育委员会创新能力提升计划资助项目(PXM2016 014213 000033)

摘　　要：在对农产品冷链物流关键要素进行系统分析的基础上,设计了农产品冷链物流风险评估指标体系,解决了农产品冷链物流风险不易评估的难题.运用离差最大化法对突变级数评估法中的指标重要性排序问题进行改进,通过构建基于改进突变级数法的农产品冷链物流风险评估模型,分析了风险评估流程,降低了评估过程中决策分析的主观性.结果表明,改进突变级数评估模型考虑了评估对象的动态性,克服了传统评估方法中主动赋权的局限,提高了农产品冷链物流风险评估的精确性.On the basis of system analysis of key elements in cold chain logistics of agricultural products, this paper designs a risk assessment index system for cold chain logistics of agricultural products. The catastrophe progression method is improved by adding the maximum deviation algorithm to order the index importance.This improved method can reduce the subjectivity of evaluation in the process of decision analysis. The results show that the improved mutation progression model considers the dynamic nature of the evaluation object,overcomes the limitation of traditional evaluation methods of active empowerment, and improves the accuracy of cold chain logistics risk assessment of agricultural products.

关 键 词：农产品 冷链物流 突变级数法 离差最大化法 

分 类 号：F252.21[经济管理—国民经济]