杠杆率、经济增长与衰退  

Leverage,Economic Growth and Recession

作　　者：刘晓光[1] 刘元春[2] 王健[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,讲师北京100872 [2]中国人民大学经济学院,教授北京100872 [3]中国人民银行金融稳定局,北京100800

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2018年第6期50-70,共21页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CJL049)的资助

摘　　要：构建包括金融深化和债务—通缩机制在内的统一分析框架,对全球179个国家(地区)1960—2015年大型跨国面板数据的实证分析发现,杠杆率变化对经济增长和衰退的影响为非线性,且存在发展阶段和债务类型的异质性。高储蓄率和全要素生产率增长,显著降低了杠杆率提升对经济增长和波动的不利影响。打破杠杆率变化与经济增长动态平衡良性循环的触发紧缩机制临界值,显示了上述关系发生逆转的条件。由于中国经济增速可能超越了触发紧缩机制的临界值,在总量上"稳杠杆"、在结构上"去杠杆"、在效率上"优杠杆",可能是目前的占优选择。Using a unified analytical framework including financial deepening and the debtdeflation mechanism,we conducted an empirical analysis of large-scale multinational panel data from 179 countries(regions)from 1960 to 2015.Our findings show that changes in leverage have a nonlinear impact on economic growth and recession and that heterogeneity is present in the development stage and debt type.High savings rates and total factor productivity growth have significantly reduced the negative impact of increased leverage on economic growth and volatility.The conditions for the reversal of this relationship can be seen in the critical value of the contractiontriggering mechanism that disrupts the virtuous cycle of changes in the leverage ratio and the dynamic balance of economic growth.Since China's economic growth may have gone beyond the critical value that triggers the contraction mechanism,the best option at present may be to "stabilize leverage"of the total amount,"de-leverage"structurally and"optimize leverage"in terms of efficiency.

关 键 词：杠杆率 债务率 经济增长 经济衰退 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]