Projected Changes in Extreme High Temperature and Heat Stress in China  

作　　者：Xingcai LIU Qiuhong TANG Xuejun ZHANG Siao SUN 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101 [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049 [3]Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 1O0101

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2018年第3期351-366,共16页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41730645 and 41425002);Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(ZDRW-ZS-2017-4);National Youth Top-Notch Talent Support Program in China;Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2016M601117)

摘　　要：High temperature accompanied with high humidity may result in unbearable and oppressive weather. In this study,future changes of extreme high temperature and heat stress in China’s mainland are examined based on daily maximum temperature(Tx) and daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature(Tw). Twhas integrated the effects of both temperature and humidity. Future climate projections are derived from the bias-corrected climate data of five general circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Changes of hot days and heat waves in July and August in the future(particularly for 2020-50 and 2070-99), relative to the baseline period(1981-2010), are estimated and analyzed. The results show that the future Txand Twof entire China will increase by 1.5-5℃ on average around 2085 under different RCPs. Future increases in Txand Twexhibit high spatial heterogeneity, ranging from 1.2 to 6℃ across different regions and RCPs. By around 2085, the mean duration of heat waves will increase by 5 days per annum under RCP8.5. According to Tx, heat waves will mostly occur in Northwest and Southeast China, whereas based on Twestimates, heat waves will mostly occur over Southeast China and the mean heat wave duration will be much longer than those from Tx. The total extreme hot days(Txor Tw> 35℃) will increase by 10-30 days. Southeast China will experience the severest heat stress in the near future as extreme high temperature and heat waves will occur more often in this region, which is particularly true when heat waves are assessed based on Tw. In comparison to those purely temperature-based indices, the index Twprovides a new perspective for heat stress assessment in China.High temperature accompanied with high humidity may result in unbearable and oppressive weather. In this study,future changes of extreme high temperature and heat stress in China's Mainland are examined based on daily maximum temperature(T_x) and daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature(T_w). T_w has integrated the effects of both temperature and humidity. Future climate projections are derived from the bias-corrected climate data of five general circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Changes of hot days and heat waves in July and August in the future(particularly for 2020-50 and 2070-99), relative to the baseline period(1981-2010), are estimated and analyzed. The results show that the future T_x and T_w of entire China will increase by 1.5-5℃ on average around 2085 under different RCPs. Future increases in T_x and T_w exhibit high spatial heterogeneity, ranging from 1.2 to 6℃ across different regions and RCPs. By around 2085, the mean duration of heat waves will increase by 5 days per annum under RCP8.5. According to T_x, heat waves will mostly occur in Northwest and Southeast China, whereas based on T_w estimates, heat waves will mostly occur over Southeast China and the mean heat wave duration will be much longer than those from T_x. The total extreme hot days(T_x or T_w > 35℃) will increase by 10-30 days. Southeast China will experience the severest heat stress in the near future as extreme high temperature and heat waves will occur more often in this region, which is particularly true when heat waves are assessed based on T_w. In comparison to those purely temperature-based indices, the index T_w provides a new perspective for heat stress assessment in China.

关 键 词：high temperature wet-bulb globe temperature heat stress climate change 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]