中国海外耕地投资东道国选择的影响因素研究--基于贸易引力模型和随机效用模型的实证  

Research on the Impact Factors on Selecting Host Countries of China's Overseas Farmland Investment: An Empirical Study Based on Gravity Model and Random Utility Model

作　　者：万凯[1] 卢新海[1,2] WAN Kai;LU Xinhai(College of Public Administration,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;College of Public Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]华中师范大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2018年第6期75-81,共7页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71673096,41371522,41501589)

摘　　要：研究目的:从贸易视角研究双边关系和东道国要素对中国海外耕地投资东道国选择的影响,为农业企业"走出去"提供参考。研究方法:贸易引力模型,随机效用模型。研究结果:(1)地理位置是影响中国海外耕地的重要因素,贸易距离对中国海外耕地投资产生显著的负向影响,区域贸易协定对中国海外耕地投资有显著的正向影响;(2)中国海外耕地投资倾向于选择市场经济不发达和低税率国家,带有显著的制度风险规避特征,东道国腐败控制度、产权安全度、投资便利度对中国海外耕地投资东道国选择影响显著;(3)中国海外耕地投资的资源寻求动机并不显著,东道国农业资源对中国海外耕地投资有一定吸引力但并非决定因素。研究结论:中国海外耕地投资东道国选择不同于一般意义上的对外直接投资,与资源类对外直接投资也呈现出较大差异,应根据其特点制定相应的投资政策。The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of bilateral relations and host country factors on selecting host countries of China＇s farmland investment from the perspective of international trade. The method employed include trade gravity model and random utility model. The results indicate that： 1） the geographic position is an important factor, the trade distance has a significant negative effect on China＇s overseas farmland investment, while the regional trade agreements have a significant positive impact. 2） China＇s farmland investment tends to choose the country with undeveloped market economy and low tax rate, showing a significant feature of risk aversion. The corruption control, property rights security, investment convenience exert notable impacts on host country selection. 3） The agricultural land resource of the host country has an insignificant influence on China＇s overseas farmland investment. The host country＇s agricultural resources are somewhat attractive to China＇s overseas farmland investment but are not the decisive factor. It＇s concluded that the host country selection regarding China＇s overseas farmland investment is different from the general sense of foreign direct investment and the counterpart policies should be made according to the unique characteristics to ensure the rationally implementation of China＇s overseas farmland investment.

关 键 词：土地经济 海外耕地投资 贸易引力模型 东道国 

分 类 号：F301.11[经济管理—产业经济]