基于年龄-时期-队列模型的我国人口生育率趋势分析  

Analysis on trend of fertility in China by age-period-cohort model

作　　者：程志伟[1] 杨永利[1] 贾晓灿[1] 杜玉慧[1] 夏振华[1] 张卫萍 施学忠[1] CHENG Zhiwei;YANG Yongli;JIA Xiaocan;DU Yuhui;XIA Zhenhua;ZHANG Weiping;SHI Xuezhong(Department of Health Statistics,College of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室,郑州450001

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（医学版）》2018年第3期299-303,共5页Journal of Zhengzhou University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：河南省医学科技攻关计划项目(201402002)

摘　　要：目的:探讨我国生育率随年龄、时期和队列的变化趋势。方法:利用国家统计局网站上的公开数据计算1995、2000、2005、2010及2015年总生育率及各孩次生育率,拟合年龄-时期-队列模型。结果:自1995年以来,我国总生育率和一孩生育率呈现下降趋势,二孩和三孩及以上生育率有所上升;生育高峰由1995年的20岁推迟到2015年的25岁。年龄是影响生育率的最主要因素,总生育率、一孩生育率、二孩生育率和三孩及以上生育率较高的年龄组分别为20~34岁、20~29岁、20~34岁及25~34岁。时期效应对二孩生育率有影响,2015年二孩生育率上升。1966~1985年出生队列人群生育率高于其他队列人群。结论:我国人口生育高峰呈现延迟现象,总生育高峰年龄段集中在20~34岁;时期效应影响二孩生育率;晚出生队列人群生育率没有下降。Aim： To analyze the changing trends of fertility by age-period-cohort model. Methods： The total fertility rate and parity-specific fertility rate in 1995,2000,2005,2010 and 2015 were calculated based on the data from National Bureau of Statistics of the People＇s Republic of China. The age-period-cohort model was fitted. Results： Since 1995,the fertility rate and first-child fertility rate showed a downward trend,while fertility rates of second-child and third-child and above increased. The birth bloom of total fertility was delayed,from 20 years old in 1995 to 25 years old in 2015. Age was the most important factor of fertility in China. The age groups with a higher fertility rate for total fertility,first-child fertility,second-child fertility and third-child and above fertility were 20-34 years old,20-29 years old,20-34 years old and 25-34 years old,respectively. The change of policy during the period mainly affected the second-child fertility rate. The second-child fertility rate rose in 2015. The fertility rate of birth cohorts from 1966 to 1985 was higher than that of other cohorts. Conclusion： There are delays in fertility bloom in China. The total birth bloom age is 20-34 years old,and the period effect affects the second child fertility rate. The fertility rate of the lately birth cohort population did not decrease.

关 键 词：生育率 生育高峰 年龄-时期-队列模型 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]