工业点源COD超标排放预警的估计方法  

An Estimation Method for Industrial Point Source COD Exceeding Standard Emission Warning

作　　者：张震[1] 宋国君[2] 刘刚[3] 王军霞[1] Zhang Zhen;Song Guojun;Liu Gang;Wang Junxia(China National Environment Monitoring Center,Beijing 100012,China;a.School of Environment and Natural Resources,b School of Information,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境监测总站,北京100012 [2]中国人民大学环境学院信息学院,北京100872 [3]中国人民大学信息学院,北京100872

出　　处：《统计与决策》2018年第14期68-71,共4页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家重点研发计划-大气污染成因与控制技术研究专项项目(2016YFC0208400)

摘　　要：文章首先对美国工业点源COD排放潜在超标可能性评估的统计方法进行介绍,并在其基础上,修正其统计学缺陷,根据我国排放数据监测条件进行优化。优化方法成果通过实际数据检验,在有限排放监测数据条件下证明该统计学方法科学、有效。该方法由于其针对的数据量和估计方法难以到达精确预警的目的,限于工业水污染源物排放超标排放预警估计,对工业点源小样本的环境保护部门监督性监测和企业排污守法预警自测具有一定管理意义。This paper firstly introduces the statistical method for evaluating the potential excess of COD emissions from industrial point sources in the United States, and on this basis corrects the statistical defects, and does optimization according to China＇s emissions data monitoring conditions. The results of optimization method are verified by actual data, and the statistical method is proved to be scientific and effective under the condition of limited emission monitoring data. Because the amount of data and the estimation method used in the proposed method cannot meet the goal of accurate early warning,the method is limited to the early warning estimation of emission from industrial water pollution sources exceeding the standard, and it is of certain management significance to the supervision and monitoring of the environmental protection department of a small sample of industrial point source and the self-test of enterprises＇ pollution compliance and early warning.

关 键 词：污染源 监测 超标预警 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]