城镇化水平与地方政府债务规模关系的理论与实证研究  

A Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Relationship between Urbanization Levels and the Scale of Local Government Debt

作　　者：陈会玲 魏世勇 Chen Huiling;Wei Shiyong(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan Polytechnic University,Wuhan,Hubei 430040,Chin)

机构地区：[1]武汉轻工大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430040

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2018年第3期104-115,共12页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：教育部社会科学基金项目(15YJA790005)

摘　　要：采用格兰杰因果关系模型实证分析地方政府债务规模和城镇化水平间的关系,并运用公共经济学理论分析地方政府债务规模与城镇化水平间的内在逻辑关系和作用机制。研究表明,地方政府债务规模是城镇化水平的格兰杰原因,两者存在长期协整关系。在城镇化快速发展过程中,地方政府债务规模扩张是需求作用机制、公共福利作用机制和新城建设的财政机会主义偏好共同作用的结果。因此,中央政府应该实施审慎的地方政府债务政策,约束地方财政机会主义偏好,建立地方政府债券制度,规范地方政府举债融资和债券市场,有效防范、化解地方政府债务风险。This study uses the Granger causality model to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the scale of local government debt and urbanization levels. It further ap- plies public economic theory to analyze the internal logical relationships and mechanisms of action governing the relationship between the scale of local government debt and urbanization levels. The study indicates that the scale of local government debt is a Granger cause of urbanization levels, and that the two exhibit a long-term coordinated relationship. In the process of rapid urban de- velopment, the expanding scale of local government debt is a necessary mechanism of action, and a combined result of the roles of public welfare mechanisms of action and tendencies towards fis- cal opportunism. As such, the central government should implement cautious local government debt policies and restrict the tendencies of local governments towards fiscal opportunism,in addi- tion to establishing nancing and bond a bond system for local governments and regulating local government debt fi- markets in order to resolve local government debt risks.

关 键 词：地方政府 债务规模 财政机会主义偏好 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学]