大型火电站锅炉送引风机的可靠性增长模型及预测  

Reliability Growth Model and Predictive for Fans of Coal-fired Power Plant

作　　者：曹先常[1] 史进渊[2] 蒋安众[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学,上海200240 [2]上海发电设备成套设计研究所,上海200240

出　　处：《流体机械》2002年第8期20-22,14,共4页Fluid Machinery

摘　　要：提出了大型火电站锅炉送、引风机可靠性增长模型 ,详细讨论了该模型的参数估计和拟合检验。根据电力可靠性管理中心统计数据 ,说明了该模型完全符合该类型风机的可靠性增长变化趋势。分析结果也说明了通过改正产品设计和制造中的缺陷以及运行人员素质的提高、操作水平的熟练、生产设施及其运行状况的改善 ,产品的可靠性特征量得到逐步提高 ,同时为送。Reliability growth model for fans in coal-fired power plant is presented, together with a description of a method for estimating the parameters and testing the model fitting quality. According to data provided by China Electricity Reliability Management Center, the model is consistent with the change of reliability of fans. The analyses results show that the reliability of fans can be increased by correct the defects of design and manufacture, enhancing skill of operators,and improving condition of operating. The foundation for condition-based maintenance is provided.

关 键 词：大型 火电站 锅炉 引风机 可靠性 增长模型 预测 状态检修 逆风机 

分 类 号：TM621.2[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]