中国再生铬资源回收利用现状及未来趋势分析  

Analysis of status and future trend of recycled chromium resources in China

作　　者：潘昭帅 张照志[2,3] 王贤伟[1,3] 杨亚萍 张泽南 PAN Zhaoshuai;ZHANG Zhaozhi;WANG Xianwei;YANG Yaping;ZHANG Zenan(School of Earth Sciences and Resources,China University of Geosciences（Beijing）,Beijing 100083,China;MLR Key Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Resource Assessment,Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China;Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100083 [2]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所国土资源部成矿作用与资源评价重点实验室,北京100037 [3]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《中国矿业》2018年第8期17-21,共5页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：中国地质调查局地质调查项目子项目"我国矿产资源保障程度动态跟踪与评估"资助(编号:N1618-8)

摘　　要：我国铬矿资源匮乏,产量极低,铬矿资源消费量大,一次资源对外依存度高,供需矛盾突出,再生铬的回收利用可弥补部分需求缺口。通过借鉴美国再生铬的回收情况,立足于我国再生铬回收利用现状,利用类比法和ARIMA模型对我国未来再生铬的回收情况做出预测。预测2030年前后,中国再生铬的回收利用将达到发达国家水平,再生铬的回收占比稳定在需求量的35%~45%,年均可回收量约为180万t。2020年、2030年和2035年中国再生铬的回收量分别为129万t、179万t和188万t。据此,提出做好再生铬资源回收利用布局等对策建议。Chrome ore resources are scarce in China,the output is extremely low,and the consumption of chrome ore resources is large.The degree of dependence on primary resources is high,and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.The recycling of chromium can make up for some of the demand gap.By referring to the recycling of chromium in the United States and based on the status quo of China s chromium recycling,we use analogy and the ARIMA model to predict the future recovery of chromium in China.It is predicted that around 2030,China s recycling of chrome will reach the level of developed countries.The recovery ratio of chrome is stable at 35% to 45% of the demand,and the annual recoverable amount is about 1.8 Mt.In 2020,2030,and 2035,China s recycling of chrome was 1.29 Mt, 1.79 Mt and 1.88 Mt.Based on this,it puts forward some countermeasures such as the layout of recycled chrome resources.

关 键 词：铬资源 回收量 消费量 产量 预测 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F407.1