SEIR模型在诺如病毒医院感染的应用研究  

Application of SEIR in hospital acquired norovirus infections

作　　者：黄璜[1] 兰玲 单旭征[1] 龙云淑[1] 刘燕[1] 许春琼[1] HUANG Huang;LAN Ling;SHAN Xu-zheng;LONG Yun-shu;LIU Yan;XU Chun-qiong(Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610081,China)

机构地区：[1]成都大学附属医院医院感染科,四川成都610081 [2]广州黄埔造船厂职工医院预防保健科,广东广州510715

出　　处：《中华医院感染学杂志》2018年第14期2205-2208,共4页Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology

摘　　要：目的构建诺如病毒医院内传播的传染病动力学模型,为防控诺如病毒医院感染暴发提供理论依据。方法应用传染病动力学的方法,构建自然传播与不同隔离防控措施条件下的诺如病毒SEIR模型,并对模型进行比较。结果诺如病毒在医院内自然传播时,在传播第2.2天,即可发生医院感染暴发;暴发后采取隔离防控措施,暴发仍持续6天,但感染人数减少,在传播第1天采取隔离防控措施,可有效防止诺如病毒医院感染暴发。结论诺如病毒医院感染暴发易发生,及时隔离诺如病毒患者能有效防止医院感染暴发。OBJECTIVE To establish an epidemic dynamics model for the transmission of norovirus infections in hospital,so as to provide theoretical support for the prevention and control of hospital acquired norovirus infection outbreaks.METHODS The SEIR models based on natural transmission or taking different quarantine measures were developed using epidemic dynamical methods,and the models were compared.RESULTS The hospital acquired norovirus infection outbreak was occurred on the 2.2 day under the natural transmission.When quarantine measure was taken after norovirus outbreak,it would last for 6 days but the number of infected patients was significantly reduced.When the quarantine measure was taken on the first day,the outbreak could be effectively prevented.CONCLUSIONThe norovirus infection can easily break out in hospital,and early quarantine could effectively prevent norovirus infection outbreak in hospital.

关 键 词：SEIR 诺如病毒 医院感染 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]