新农保对中国农村老年人劳动时间影响的再考察——基于工具变量和PSM方法的研究  

Revisit the Influence of New Rural Insurance on the Labor Time of the Rural Old People in China

作　　者：王善高[1] 田旭[1] 刘余[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《经济动态与评论》2018年第1期38-55,187-188,共18页Review of Economic Trends

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“劳动力成本上升背景下农业生产方式转变与结构调整研究”(批准号:71473123);“新时期农业发展的国家政策支持体系研究”(批准号:71333008);国家社科基金重大项目“加快构建新型农业经营体系研究”(批准号:14ZDA037);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目成果

摘　　要：本文首先从理论上分析了养老保障制度对农村老年人劳动时间的影响机制,然后采用2011年中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）基线数据,通过计量实证方法,系统分析了＂新农保＂对农村老年人农业劳动时间和非农劳动时间的影响,并采用倾向得分匹配法进行了稳健性检验。结果表明：（1）＂新农保＂的实施会使农村老年人的农业劳动时间平均减少11.8天,但对非农劳动时间没有显著影响。（2）＂新农保＂的实施对老年男性影响更大,其农业劳动时间比老年女性多减少6.1天,但老年男性和老年女性的非农劳动时间均不受影响。（3）＂新农保＂对60~69岁老年人农业劳动时间的影响较大,对70岁及以上老年人的影响相对较小;对60~69岁老年人的非农劳动时间没有显著影响,但会显著降低70岁及以上老年人的非农劳动时间。This paper first analyzes the impact of the old-age security system on the working time of the rural elderly. Using the China’s Health and Retirement Survey( CHARLS) 2011 data,this paper systematically ana-lyzes the influence of "new farmer’s insurance"on the agricultural labor time and non-agricultural labor time in rural areas. On this basis,Using the Propensity Score Matching to do a robustness test and calculate the average treatment effect of the treatment group( participating in the new agricultural insurance) and the control group( not participating in the new agricultural insurance). Our results show that:( 1) The implementation of the new agricultural insurance will make the average rural labor time in rural areas reduced by11. 8 days,but no significant impact on non-agricultural labor time;( 2) The implementation of the new agricultural insurance has a greater impact on older men,the agricultural labor time than the elderly women more than 6. 1 days,but older men and older women non-agricultural labor time are not affected;( 3) The impact of the new agricultural insurance on the labor time of the aged 60-69 years old is relatively large and the impact on the elderly aged 70 years and older is relatively small; there is no significant effect on the nonfarm labor time of the aged 60-69 years old,but would significantly reduce the non-farm labor time of the elderly aged 70 years and older.

关 键 词：新农保 农村老年人 农业劳动时间 非农劳动时间 

分 类 号：F014.2[经济管理—政治经济学]