中国产业结构演变对金融发展的影响——基于30个省级面板数据实证分析  

The Impact of the Evolution of China's Industrial Structure on Financial Development:An Empirical Analysis Based on 30 Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：束金明 洪功翔[1] Shu Jin-ming;Hong Gong-xiang(Anhui University of Technology,Ma＇anshan Anhui 243032,Chin)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《铜陵学院学报》2018年第2期39-45,共7页Journal of Tongling University

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"坚持和完善中国特色社会主义基本经济制度研究"(14AJL001)

摘　　要：文章从产业结构演变出发,研究产业结构合理化和高级化对金融发展的影响机制。利用中国2001-2015年30个省级面板数据,建立起金融发展、产业结构合理化、产业结构高级化、进出口、失业率、城乡收入差距和第三产业产值等为指标的实证模型,通过固定效应和系统GMM研究方法,分析发现我国产业结构演变的两个维度对金融发展具有显著的促进作用。产业结构合理化对金融发展的促进作用大于产业结构高级化,且两个维度的促进作用均呈现出明显的区域差异性;第三产业比重的增加会显著促进金融发展;进口对金融发展具有显著的抑制作用;失业对金融发展具有严重的抑制作用;城乡收入差距对金融发展有显著的负向作用。本文的结论与相关经验一致,能够为解释中国金融发展的历史、现状和前景提供新的视角,为我国产业结构转型升级和金融产业的发展提供理论依据。This paper explores the influence machine of the optimization and rationalization of the industrial structure on financial development from the perspective of the industrial structure evolution. Based on the panel date collected from 2001 to 2015, through building the index system which includes financial development, industrial structure rationalization and optimization, import and export,unemployment, income gap between urban and rural areas and the tertiary industrial output, this paper has proved that the two dimensions of industrial structure evolution have a positive effect on financial development by the methods of fixed effect and dynamic panel models. The promotion of the industrial structure rationalization to financial development is greater than that of the industrial structure optimization, which also shows the significant regional differences. The increase of the proportion of the tertiary industrial output has a significant promotion to the financial development, while the import, unemployment and the income gap between urban and rural areas have a negative effect on financial development. The conclusions of this paper are consistent with relevant experience which can provide a new perspective for explaining the history, current status and prospects of China＇s financial development, and afford a theoretical basis for the transformation and upgrading of China＇s industrial structure and the development of the financial industry.

关 键 词：金融发展 产业结构高级化 产业结构合理化 固定效应 系统GMM 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]