基于CA-Markov模型的长沙市望城区土地利用/覆盖变化预测  

The CA-Markov ModelB ased Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes in Wangcheng District, Changsha City, Hunan Province

作　　者：宋磊 陈笑扬 李小丽[1,3] 王丽芳 张宝一[1] Song Lei;Chen Xiaoyang;LiXiaoli;Wang Lifang;Zhang Baoyi(School of Geosciences ＆ Info-Physics,Central South University,Changsha Hunan 410083;Hunan Institute of Geological Survey,Changsha Hunan 410116;Development and Reform Bureau of Liangqing District,Nanning City,Nanning Guangxi 530200)

机构地区：[1]中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]湖南省地质调查院,湖南长沙410116 [3]南宁市良庆区发展和改革局,广西南宁530200

出　　处：《国土资源导刊》2018年第2期17-23,共7页Land & Resources Herald

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41772348;41302259)资助

摘　　要：为获取望城区未来土地利用/覆盖的数量及空间分布情景,本文利用2009、2010、2012年土地利用/覆盖数据、DEM及社会经济数据,运用Logistic模型分析土地利用变化与各驱动因子间的定量关系,综合区域限制条件修正土地利用适宜性概率,最终耦合CA-Markov模型对2020年土地利用进行模拟与预测。模拟结果较好地揭示了望城区土地利用动态变化趋势,一定程度上指导该地区的土地资源优化配置。In order to obtain the quantity and spatial pattern of future land use in Wangcheng District of Changsha City, this paper uses the land use/cover status data in 3 years（2009,2010,2012） and DEM and socio-economic data to analyze the relationship between land use change and each driving force. And on this basis, we revise the probability of land use suitability in the condition of taking the restrictions of the land use changing in the study area. At last, we coupled those analysis results with CA-Markov model to simulate and forecast the land use in 2020. The simulation results reveal the trend of dynamic changes of land use in Wangcheng District and can be used as a basis to guide the optimal allocation of land resources in this area.

关 键 词：土地利用/覆盖变化 CA-Markov模型 空间格局模拟 望城区 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]