中美两国海洋依赖性和海洋综合实力的耦合分析  

Marine Dependence and Comprehensive Marine Strength of China and America: A Coupling Analysis

作　　者：黄宇[1] 刘晓凤 葛岳静[1] HUANG Yu;LIU Xiaofeng;GE Yuejing(Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学,北京100875

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2018年第6期68-77,共10页Pacific Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"中缅泰老‘黄金四角’跨流域合作与共生治理体系研究"(16ZDA041)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：作为人类的资源宝库、最大的运输通道以及沿海国家的战略缓冲区,海洋对人类发展具有重要作用。当前对海洋的研究多关注国家的海洋综合实力,很少涉及国家的海洋依赖性,更鲜有关注两者的协调情况,因而难以对海洋综合实力的走势做出科学的预估。为此,本文以中美两国为研究对象,构建国家的海洋依赖性和海洋综合实力的评价指标体系和两者的耦合分析模型。结论如下:(1)国家的海洋依赖性方面,美国近十年逐年下降,中国逐年上升并在2010年超过美国;国家海洋综合实力方面,美国处于较高水平的稳定状态,中国起点低但发展快,与美国差距不断缩小。(2)十年来国家的海洋依赖性与综合实力耦合程度的降低限制了美国海洋系统的发展,美国已进入海洋战略的收缩阶段。(3)中国海洋依赖性和海洋综合实力形成良好的耦合关系,对提升国家的海洋影响力和海洋依赖的安全程度是有利的。As the treasure repository for mankind,the largest transportation corridor,as well as the strategic buffer zone of the coastal states,the ocean plays a significant role in the development of human society.Recent research on the ocean mainly focuses on comprehensive marine strength of countries,and few papers discussed the marine dependence,not to mention the coordination between the two aspects. Therefore,it is difficult to make scientific predictions on the trend of the comprehensive marine strength. The paper takes China and America as research objects,and builds evaluation index systems as well as the coupling analysis model for comprehensive marine strength and marine dependence. The conclusions are： 1） Marine dependence of America dropped consecutively in the recent 10 years,while that of China increased a lot and surpassed America in 2010. Comprehensive marine strength of America is at a steadily high level,while China witnesses a rapid development of comprehensive marine strength,which had a low starting point,and the gap between the two has diminished in the past few years. 2） The descending marine dependence of America appears digressive coupling relationship with the stable comprehensive marine strength,which restricts the development of American ocean system,indicating that America is entering a shrinking stage of marine strategy. 3） The coupling relationship between the two dimensions of China shows a favorable trend,and it is beneficial to promoting Chinese marine influence and ensuring the safety of Chinese marine dependence.

关 键 词：耦合分析 海洋依赖性 海洋综合实力 

分 类 号：K901.4[历史地理—人文地理学]