西北5省碳排放与产业结构碳锁定的灰色关联分析  

A Grey Correlation Analysis of Carbon Emission and Industrial Structure Carbon Locked in Northwest Five Provinces

作　　者：郭卫香[1,2] 孙慧[1,2] Guo Weixiang;Sun Hui(Innovation Management Research Center on Xinjiang,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学经济与管理学院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2018年第7期119-127,共9页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"资源型产业碳排放损益偏离分析与区域公平发展研究"(项目编号:71463056);新疆大学博士生科技创新项目"资源型产业绿色低碳循环发展粘性分析及其路径选择"(项目编号:XJUBSCX-2016002);新疆大学经济与管理学院研究生"丝路"项目"新疆资源型产业梯度转移粘性特征与碳排放空间外部性研究"(项目编号:JGSL16007);新疆维吾尔自治区普通高校人文社会科学重点研究基地"新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心"基金资助项目(项目编号:XJEDU010116C01)

摘　　要：日益严重的"碳锁定效应"对当前碳减排工作提出了新的挑战。如何突破传统的碳减排理念,探索有效的解锁路径已经成为区域经济社会可持续发展所面临的重要课题。本文通过梳理碳锁定和产业碳锁定相关文献,从区域的视角,通过测算2004~2016年间中国和西北5省碳排放量数据和产业结构发展的状况,并测算各区域碳排放与产业发展间的关联度,发现中国碳排放量与产业结构间的关联关系依次为二三一的结构,然而西北5省碳排放量与产业结构间的关系并不同于全国。其中陕西和甘肃呈现出与全国相同的关联关系,而青海和新疆则呈现出三二一的现象,宁夏则呈现出一三二的关联关系。The increasingly serious carbon lock-in effect poses a new challenge to the current work of carbon reduction. How to break through the traditional concept of carbon emission reduction and explore the effective unlocking path has become the urgent task for the sustainable development of regional economic and society. This article,from the perspective of regional,based on the KAYA model,through measuring the energy consumption and carbon emission characteristics of China and the five Northwestern Provinces in 2004-2016. And then uses the grey correlation analysis method,to measure the correlation between regional carbon emissions and industrial development,finds that： the relationship between China’s carbon emissions and industrial structure present＂231＂,however,the relationship of carbon emissions and the industrial structure of the Five Northwestern Provinces is not the same. Among them,Shanxi and Gansu have the same relationship with the whole country,while Qinghai and Xinjiang show a relationship of ＂321＂,and Ningxia presents ＂132＂.

关 键 词：碳排放 碳锁定 产业碳锁定 产业结构 关联度 灰色关联分析法 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F127