福建省属公益类科研院所科技投入产出动态关系及趋势预测  

Dynamic Relationship and Trend Prediction of Science and Technology Input and Output in Public Welfare Research Institutes in Fujian Province

作　　者：池敏青[1] CHI Min-qing(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Scientific Information,Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Fuzhou 350003,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省农业科学院农业经济与科技信息研究所,福州350003

出　　处：《科技和产业》2018年第6期67-72,共6页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：福建省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项(2017R1015-10);福建省农业科学院"十三五"青年科技创新团队(STIT2017-3-7)

摘　　要：采用2011—2015年科技投入产出相关数据,采用灰色关联分析和L-Q灰色预测模型,对38家福建省属公益类科研院所8项科技投入产出进行关联分析和预测。结果表明:该类科研院所科技投入与产出之间存在较强相关关系,增加科技投入能有效提高科技产出水平;目前不同科技投入对不同产出影响不同,但在未来5年,科技人员的工作效率和创新能力将成为决定科研院所科技产出效率的重要因素。因此在继续加大科技经费物质投入同时,必须高度重视人才培养及优化人才结构,从而提升科技投入产出效率。Based on the related data of scientific and technological input and output in 2011~2015 years,Grey relational analysis and L-Q grey prediction model are adopted,This paper makes an association analysis and prediction of 8 inputs and outputs of science and technology in 38 provincial public welfare research institutes in Fujian.The results show that there is a strong correlation between scientific and technological input and output,and the increase of scientific and technological input can effectively improve the level of scientific and technological output;At present,different input of science and technology has different effects on different outputs,But in the next 5 years,The working efficiency and innovation ability of scientific and technical personnel will become the important factor to decide the efficiency of scientific research output.Therefore,in order to improve the efficiency of science and technology input and output,we must attach great importance to talent training and optimize the talent structure,while continuing to increase the material input of science and technology funds.

关 键 词：科技投入产出 灰色关联分析 L-Q灰色预测模型 公益类科研院所 

分 类 号：G311[文化科学]