钢铁企业电力负荷动态预测建模问题的应用研究  

Investigation on Application of Electricity Load Dynamic Forecast Modelling in Iron and Steel Enterprises

作　　者：梁青艳[1] 孙彦广[1] LIANG Qing-yan;SUN Yan-guang(Autonmtion Research and Design Institute of Metallurgical Industry,China Iron and Steel Research Institute Group,Beijing 100071,China)

机构地区：[1]中国钢研科技集团冶金自动化研究设计院,北京100071

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2018年第16期44-54,共11页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFB0304000)资助

摘　　要：针对钢铁企业负荷波动特点,用分解及分类建模的思想,构造负荷预测模型。综合考虑各用电环节的用电特点、工况和工艺信息,分类建立模型。通过各用电环节预测结果叠加获取总负荷预测值;该模型运用静态预测和动态预测相结合的方法,在动态预测过程中充分考虑到实时工艺节奏和动态工况信息,使模型具有更好的适应性。实例表明,该预测模型能获得良好的预测效果。Aiming at the characteristics of load fluctuation in iron and steel enterprises,a kind of decomposition and classification modeling thought was used to construct load forecasting model. Considering each link electricity load characteristics,production condition information,technological characteristics,a classification model was established which got the total predictive value by superimposing on each link forecast results. The model uses the combination of static prediction and dynamic prediction,in the dynamic forecasting process it fully takes into account the real-time production rhythm and dynamic conditions information,so that the model has better adaptability. The example shows that the prediction model can obtain good prediction effect.

关 键 词：钢铁企业 用电负荷 分类建模 动态预测 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]