辽宁水稻年景预报模型研究  

Forecast Model of Rice Harvest in Liaoning Province

作　　者：胡春丽 李荣平 王婷 李菲[2] 李琳琳 HU Chunli;LI Rongping;WANG Ting;LI Fei;LI Linlin(Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Science,Shenyang 110016,China;Shenyang Regional Climate Centre,Shenyang 110016,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象科学研究所,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110016

出　　处：《干旱气象》2018年第3期501-506,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41605087);辽宁省农业领域青年科技创新人才培养计划项目(2015030);中国气象局2017年省级气象科研所科技创新发展项目(201708);辽宁省气象局项目(201604);山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程2018年建设项目;中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所开放基金课题(2017SYIAE05)共同资助

摘　　要：选用1961—2015年东北地区26个气象站月平均气温资料、国家气候中心74项环流特征量指数、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和1986—2015年辽宁省水稻单产资料,分析了辽宁省水稻产量的时间变化特征,基于大气环流对长期天气过程影响的滞后性,考虑预报因子的显著、稳定性和独立性,应用多元线性回归方法建立水稻年景的预报模型。结果表明:(1)辽宁省水稻实际产量、趋势产量、气象产量均呈增加趋势,发生气候突变时间分别为1992、1997和1994年,实际产量与气象产量的关系较密切;(2)水稻年景预报模型经F检验,具有统计学意义,预报基本正确率为81.9%,用该模型预测2014、2015年水稻年景,均接近实际值。Based on the monthly mean air temperature data at 26 stations in Northeast China,the 74 circulation characteristic indexes from the National Climate Center,the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2015,and the rice yield per unit data from 1986 to2015 in Liaoning Province,the temporal variation of rice harvest was analyzed and the annual harvest forecast model of rice in Liaoning was established by using a multiple linear regression method. The results are as follows：（ 1） The actual yield,trend yield and meteorological yield of rice in Liaoning Province showed an increasing trend,and the time for their climatic mutations was 1992,1997,and1994,respectively. The relationship between actual output and meteorological yield was closer;（ 2） Through the F-test,the rice harvest forecast model reached the statistical significance. The basic accuracy rate of annual forecast model for rice was 81. 9%. And the predicted yields of rice in 2014 and 2015 by using this model were close to the actual values.

关 键 词：水稻 产量 大气环流特征量 预报模型 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学]