青海一次强降水过程的物理量预报应用试验  

Application Test of Physical Quantities in a Severe Precipitation Forecast in Qinghai

作　　者：裴尕桑 靳双龙[3] 曾晓青 王式功[1] 黄海亮 PEI Gasang;JIN Shuanglong;ZENG Xiaoqing;WANG Shigong;HUANG Hailiang(College of Atmospheric Scienees,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;China Electric Power Researeh Institute,Beijing 100192,China;National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081,China;Haixi Meteorological Bureau in Qinghai Province,Delingha 817099,Qinghai,China;Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early g/arning Centre of Liaoning Provinee,Shenyang 110166,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]青海省海西州气象局,青海德令哈817099 [3]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192 [4]国家气象中心,北京100081 [5]辽宁省气象灾害监测预警中心,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《干旱气象》2018年第3期507-515,共9页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家电网公司总部科技项目;国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点支持项目(91644226);国家基础科技条件平台建设项目(NCMI-SBS17-201707、NCMI-SJS15-201707)共同资助

摘　　要：针对强降水业务预报工作的实际需求,利用常规观测站和区域自动站逐小时降水资料及欧洲中心(ECMWF)细网格数值预报产品,采用水平螺旋度、水汽通量及水汽通量散度对2017年7月26—27日发生在青海省的强降水天气过程进行预报应用分析。结果表明:水平螺旋度、水汽通量及水汽通量散度与降水的发生发展和强降水中心有较好的对应关系;500 h Pa正水平螺旋度强度对降水强度的变化有一定的指示性,负水平螺旋度强度偏强时可以很好地指示强降水中心位置;水汽通量大值区内水汽辐合强度越强,降水强度也越强。For the demand in heavy rainfall forecasting,based on the hourly precipitation data of the conventional and automatic stations,high resolution prediction field data of ECMWF,the severe precipitation occurring in Qinghai from 26 to 27 on July 2017 was analyzed by using physical quantities such as horizontal helicity,water vapor flux and vapor flux divergence for the forecast application.The results show that the distribution of horizontal helicity,water vapor flux and vapor flux divergence had a good corresponding relationship between the occurrence and development of precipitation and the heavy rainfall center. The intensity of positive horizontal helicity on 500 h Pa had a certain indicator to the change of precipitation intensity. The intensity of negative horizontal helicity could give good indicator to the location of heavy rainfall center when it was stronger. In large value area of water vapor flux the stronger the water vapor convergence intensity was,the stronger the precipitation intensity.

关 键 词：强降水 水平螺旋度 水汽通量 水汽通量散度 

分 类 号：P458.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]