基于Fuzzy-DS模型的建筑火灾风险评估方法研究  

Research on risk assessment method of building fire based on Fuzzy-DS model

作　　者：米红甫 肖国清[3] 王文和[1,2] 王俊钦 刘亚玲 黄维 MI Hongfu;XIAO Guoqing;WANG Wenhe;WANG Junqin;LIU Yaling;HUANG Wei(College of Safety Engineering,Chongqing University of Science and Technology,Chongqing 401331,China;Chongqing Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Chongqing 401331,China;College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆科技学院安全工程学院,重庆401331 [2]重庆市安全生产科学研究院,重庆401331 [3]西南石油大学化学化工学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2018年第6期187-192,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51704054);重庆市教委科技项目(KJ1713332);西部地区人才培养特别项目(201708505133)

摘　　要：为了有效预防、控制和减少建筑火灾事故的发生,采用模糊理论和证据推理理论耦合的方法,从火灾发生的可能性和后果的严重性出发,对建筑火灾风险进行二维度量的综合评估研究,构造出Fuzzy-DS模型。以某建筑为实例,对其使用该模型进行评估。研究结果表明:该建筑火灾风险的效用值为0.298 4,对应风险水平为"中",并运用敏感性分析验证了模型的鲁棒性,验证了该模型的有效性。In order to effectively prevent,reduce and control the occurrence of building fire accidents,starting from the occurrence possibility and the consequence severity of fire,the comprehensive assessment research on building fire risk in the two-dimensional metric was carried out by using the coupling method of fuzzy theory and evidence reasoning theory,and a Fuzzy-DS model was constructed. Taking a certain building as an example,the assessment was carried out by using this model. The results showed that the utility value of fire risk for this building was 0. 2984,with the corresponding risk level of medium,and the robustness of the model was verified by using the sensitivity analysis.

关 键 词：安全工程 火灾风险 模糊理论 证据理论 

分 类 号：X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学]