江淮暴雨低涡的演变特征分析及预估  

Analysis and Prediction of Evolution Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall Vortex in Jianghuai Valley

作　　者：徐方姝 牛丹 XU Fang-shu 1, NIU Dan 2(1.Liaoning Province Meteorological Service Center, Shenyang,Liaoning 110166;2.Liaoning Provicial Meteorological Information Center,Shenyang,Liaoning 11016)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象服务中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]辽宁省气象信息中心,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2018年第18期124-129,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用欧洲中心ERA-interim再分析资料与区域气候模式RegCM4(Regional Climate Model,version 4.0)的模拟与预估结果,对当代(1995—2005年)气候背景下江淮暴雨低涡的时间变化进行对比分析,同时对未来(2020—2030年)2种温室排放情景下(RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5)典型的江淮暴雨低涡演变过程特征进行预估及对比。结果表明,未来2种情景下低涡移动路径相似,主要为东北路和东路;但移动速度略有差别,RCP 4.5情景下的低涡的初始移动缓慢,后期移速加快,而RCP 8.5情景下的低涡移动速度则较为均匀。RCP 4.5情景下的暴雨低涡强度缓慢增长,而RCP 8.5情景下的暴雨低涡个例低涡强度变化呈现的是平稳维持、增长、减弱维持3个阶段的变化趋势;就低涡暴雨过程中的降水量和降水范围来说,RCP 4.5情景下的低涡个例均明显小于RCP 8.5情景。研究结果显示更高的温室气体排放将导致未来出现更强的低涡暴雨,因此应进一步深化对低涡暴雨灾害性天气发展趋势的研究。The study compared the time evolution of heavy rainfall vortexes in Jianghuai under contemporary climate that used the data of ECMWF and simulated and projective outputs of the regional climate model, the evolution process characteristics of the low vortex during 2020 - 2030 was projected. The result showed that the vortex moving path of two scenarios was similar,mainly northeast and east;but the move speed was slightly different. In RCP 4.5 scenario, the vortex moved slowly initially and moved quickly lately, the intensity of the vortex was enhanced slowly. In RCP8.5 scenario, the speed of the vortex was relatively even, the trend of intensity was performed as three stages： keeping steady, enhancement and weaken to maintain. The amount and scope of the precipitation in RCP 8.5 scenario were both larger than that in RCP 4.5 scenario. It revealed that the more severe vortex precipitation might occur in the future with higher greenhouse gas emissions. So there should be further research on the development trend of low vortex with severe rainfall.

关 键 词：暴雨低涡 演变特征 RegCM4 预估 江淮 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]