我国食品价格的传导机制:成本传递与需求反馈  

Price Transmission Mechanism of Food in China:Cost Transfer and Demand Feedback

作　　者：孙坚强[1] 徐瑶锃 杨科[1] SUN Jian-qiang;XU Yao-zeng;YANG Ke(School of Economics and Commerce,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第3期1-11,共11页Journal of South China University of Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学"十三五"规划一般项目"通货膨胀预期的部门间异质性与传导:基于ETOMOE与MNMG的理论和实证"(GD16CYJ01);国家自然基金面上项目"金融资产收益的高频协方差矩阵研究:估计;预测与应用"(71673089);中央高校基本科研业务费(2017XZD04;2017MS14)

摘　　要：研究我国居民食品的物价传导路径和传导机制,并拓展结合线性与非线性格兰杰因果检验进行两阶段的实证检验。研究发现:(1)食品价格存在两条基本传导路径,第一条是"农林牧渔初级生产"直接传导至"消费者消费",第二条是"农林牧渔初级生产"传导至"食品加工生产"最后到"消费者消费";前者传导顺畅,但后者传导阻滞,与价格干预的非对称和加工环节的弱市场结构有关。(2)食品初级生产环节与加工生产环节存在单向的需求反馈传导,与消费环节存在双向的成本传递和需求反馈传导,加工生产环节与消费环节存在单向的成本传递传导。(3)初级生产向加工生产传递成本受阻,与生产订单的契约性和期货性以及农业价格保护有关;初级生产向消费环节传递成本顺畅,与食品的需求弹性缺乏和消费者议价力低有关。(4)消费环节对初级生产存在需求反馈,但对加工生产不存在反馈,即初级生产环节对于消费需求冲击存在价格响应,但加工生产环节则不存在价格响应。研究同时发现食品价格传导呈现线性和非线性特征,且非线性传导特征更为明显。This paper aims to investigate the transmission path and mechanism of food price in China by using combined tests of linear and nonlinear Granger Causality Test. Empirical evidences show that（ 1）the food price transmits through two paths, ＂primary agricultural production—consumption ＂ and＂primary agricultural production—food processing—consumption＂. The former path works well while the other tends to get blocked at the middle stage,which may be due to the asymmetric price intervention policy and market structure of food industry.（ 2） Demand feedback exists only between primary agricultural production and processing stage,cost transfer and demand feedback work between both primary agricultural production and consumption,and cost transfer exists only between food processing and consumption.（ 3） The cost transfer from primary production to processing stage is blocked,which may be ascribed to the contracts and futures of the production orders and the agriculture protection policy;the cost transfer well from primary production to consumption is smooths, which may be due to low elasticity of food and low bargain power of food consumer.（ 4） Consumption has demand feedbacks to primary production but not to processing stage,which means primary production has price response to consumption demands but not to processing. The study also finds that food price transmission shows linearity and non-linearity,and that non-linearity is more significant.

关 键 词：食品价格 传导机制 格兰杰因果检验 居民消费价格指数 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]