土石坝风险实时评估与综合预警模型  

A real-time risk assessment and synthetical early warning model of earth and rockfill dams

作　　者：蔡荨[1,2] 王昭升[1,2] 朱思宇 丁嘉林[3] CAI Qianl,;WANG Zhaosheng;ZHU Siyu;DING Jialin(Department of Dam Safety and Management,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Taizhou Land and Resources Bureau,Taizhou 318000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [2]水利部大坝安全管理中心,江苏南京210029 [3]台州市国土资源局,浙江台州318000

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2018年第4期57-63,共7页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401603);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501033)

摘　　要：为探讨土石坝风险实时评估方法,采用点估计法进行土石坝溃坝概率的实时分析。基于BREACH模型与HEC-RAS程序计算溃坝损失,综合前人研究成果提出改进的土石坝风险评价标准及与之相衔接的土石坝风险预警标准,并结合现有突发事件预警标准,构建一种新的土石坝综合预警模型。算例计算结果表明,基于点估计法的土石坝溃坝概率实时分析方法能同时满足风险实时评估对计算精度与计算效率的要求,此综合预警模型可有效提高早期预警能力,并在一定程度上降低过度预警造成的损失,可为土石坝风险管理提供理论依据与技术支撑。To discuss the real-time risk assessment methods for earth and rockfill dams, the point estimation method is adopted for the real-time dam-break probability analysis. The dam-break losses were analyzed based on BREACH and HEC- RAS. According to previous research, new,risk evaluation criteria and corresponding risk early warning standards are proposed. A new synthetical early warning model is established combined with the current risk early warning standards for emergency events. The verification example shows that the real-time analysis method of earth and rockfill dam break probability based on point estimation method can meet the requirements of both computational accuracy and efficiency. The synthetical early warning model can effectively improve the early warning capability while reduce the loss caused by excessive early warning to a certain extent. It can provide theoretical basis and technical support for the risk management of earth and rockfill dams.

关 键 词：土石坝 风险评估 可靠度理论 点估计法 预警模型 溃坝概率 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程]