农户种植结构调整意愿与行为差异——基于黑龙江省341个玉米种植农户的调查  

Adjustment Willingness and Behavioral Differences of Farm Households: Based on the Survey of 341 Farm Households in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：余志刚[1] 张靓 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第4期137-145,共9页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"我国粮食产业发展中的主产区政府利益与行为研究"(71303041);黑龙江省高校青年创新人才培养计划"产粮大县发展的内生动力和外部政策设计"(UNPYSCT-2016015);东北农业大学学术骨干计划"粮食主产区农民能力及培养问题研究"(17XG13)

摘　　要：农业种植结构调整的实现,取决于农户的调整意愿和调整能力。基于黑龙江省341个农户的调查,运用Logistic回归模型和适应性预期模型对农户的调整意愿和行为差异进行研究。结果表明(1)价格变动、售粮难易程度等经济因素对农户种植结构调整意愿的影响最大;(2)大多数农户有调减玉米种植面积的意愿,但只有少部分实际进行了调整,农户完成种植结构调整所需的时间不同是造成这种现象的主要原因;(3)农户种植结构调整表现为明显的地域一致性,这种地区间的不均衡则主要是因为不同地区农户种植结构调整能力的不同。因此,政策制定要着力于打破路径依赖,政府要做好政策宣传和解读,保持政策的透明性和相对稳定性,加快粮食市场化改革和完善农民能力培训体系建设,重视新型经营主体对小农户行为的引领作用。Based on the survey of 341 farm households in Heilongjiang P rovince,the logistic regression model and the adaptive expectations model were used to research the adjustment willingness and behavioral differences of farm households. Conclusions were as follows: Economic factors are the major factors affecting farm households' willingness to adjust the planting structure. Most of sample farm households have willingness to reducethe maize planting area,but only a few make actual adjustments. And the main reason for this phenomenon is the time lag in the adjustments of farm households' planting structure. The imbalance between regions of agricultural planting structure adjustments is mainly caused by the difference in the adjustment ability of farm households' planting structure in different regions. As a result,policy making should focus on breaking the path dependence. The government should make efforts to publicize and interpret policies,maintain the transparency and relative stability of policies,accelerate the reform of the grain market and improve the system of training for farmers' ability,and emphasize the leading role of new agricultural management subjects for small farmers.

关 键 词：种植结构调整 意愿 能力 调整行为 

分 类 号：F325[经济管理—产业经济]