基于“湖泊效应”的长江经济带城市空间分异研究  

Study on spatial differentiation of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone based on ‘lake effect'

作　　者：张建清[1,2] 陈佩 王嵩[2,3] 范斐[2,3] ZHANG Jian-qing;CHEN Pei;WANG Song;FAN Fei(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan Hubei 430072,China;Institute for the Development of Central China,Wuhan University,Wuhan Hubei 430072,China;Economic Development Research Center of Yangtze River,Wuhan University,Wuhan Hubei 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学中国中部经济发展研究院,湖北武汉430072 [3]武汉大学长江经济带发展研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第7期65-75,共11页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"中国地级以上城市科技资源配置效率的时空演化机理与空间效应研究"(批准号:41501141);中国博士后基金特别资助项目"区域绿色科技资源配置效率的收敛机制与空间溢出效应研究"(批准号:2016T90710);湖北省软科学面上项目"长江中游城市群创新供需系统的时空协同演化及政策模拟"(批准号:2016ADC068);武汉大学人文社会科学青年学者学术团队建设计划"我国地域非均衡发展的格局与治理"(批准号:632413100001)

摘　　要：在经济新常态背景下,如何有效地制定政策,引导长江经济带依托黄金水道实现可持续发展,具有极其重要的全局性意义。本文将长江经济带地级及以上城市的发展与长江水系的地理特征相结合,考察长江水系地理特征对于长江经济带地级及以上城市发展的促进作用。首先构建长江经济带城市发展指标体系,以2003—2015长江经济带地级及以上城市面板数据为基础,采用主客观结合的方法,评价长江经济带地级及以上城市经济发展、社会状况、生态环境,进行综合实力测算。在评价结果的基础上,结合长江经济带城市地理分布特征对长江进行缓冲分析,测算长江经济带城市群的密度曲线及趋势线,并基于Bass模型,考察长江干流是否对长江经济带地级及以上城市具有"湖泊效应",长江经济带地级及以上城市发展是否具有圈层结构。主要得到以下结论:(1)长江上、中、下游发展水平呈逆向阶梯状;(2)长江干流对长江经济带地级及以上城市的城市建设、经济发展、社会状态、生态环境及综合实力各方面均存在非常明显的"湖泊效应";(3)根据"湖泊效应"的强弱,可以将长江经济带地级及以上城市划分为环江区、离江区、远江区等三层圈层结构,其发展水平递减,离江区仍有较大发展潜力。The ‘Yangtze River Economic Zone’ is one of the three major strategies of China. Under the ‘new normal’ economy background, how to formulate effective policies to guide the Yangtze River Economic Zone to achieve sustainable development by relying on the golden water channel has extremely important global significance. In this paper, we combine the development of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone with the geographical features of the Yangtze River to study the catalytic role of the geographical features of the Yangtze River in the development of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. First, we construct the Yangtze River Economic Zone index system. Based on panel data of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone in 2003-2015, we evaluate the economic development, social situation and ecological environment of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone with the combination of subjective and objective methods, and carry out the comprehensive strength calculation. Combining the evaluation results with the urban geography distribution characteristics of the Yangtze River, we measure the density curve and the trend line of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone. Based on the Bass Model, we try to study if the Yangtze River has a ‘lake effect’ on the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone and if the development of the prefecture and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone has a circle structure. The main conclusions are as follows： ①The development level of cities in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the Yangtze River takes on a reverse ladder status.②‘Lake effect’ plays a really good role in combining the unique geographical features of the Yangtze River and the development of the cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone to carry out research. The conclusion shows that the mainstream of the Yangtze River has a significan

关 键 词：综合评价 “湖泊效应” 空间分异 长江经济带 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]