养老金亏空、延迟退休与改革阻力——基于投票理论视角  

Pension Shortfall,Later Retirement and Resistance to Reform——Based on the Perspective of Voting Theory

作　　者：邹铁钉[1] Zou Tieding(College of Economics,Zhejiang Oongshang University,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2018年第8期29-36,共8页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学规划立项课题一般项目<延迟退休的群体偏好与策略研究>(17NDJC213YB);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目<人口流动与养老保险的可携带性研究--基于劳动力资源优化配置视角>(17YJCZH277)

摘　　要：从投票理论角度构建了一个策略甄别机制,对个体偏好分化影响延迟退休的作用机制作了深入探讨。研究表明,延迟退休作为缓解养老金亏空的应急性策略,参保者对其态度同实际年龄与法定退休年龄的距离有关。超过法定退休年龄的离休者会支持,离法定退休年龄很近的在岗者会反对,而离法定退休年龄很远的新增参保者,则受人力资本影响,大体是高劳动技能者支持,低劳动技能者反对。离休者和在岗者出现分化,是因为养老负担和养老金收益存在个体差异。而在岗者内部出现分化,则是因为对延迟退休的负面感知以及同工龄相关的工资增长率、社会地位和工作成就感存在个体差异。分析表明,延迟退休的改革阻力主要来自离退休年龄很近的在岗参保者和人力资本较少的低劳动技能者。政府在说服这部分参保者的同时,还应重视对低劳动技能者的学历教育和技能培训,不断夯实支撑延迟退休的人口素养。This article employed a mechanism of screening model to explore the working mechanism of the impact of individual preference on the later retirement. The results indicated that, later retirement is just an emergency measure to pension shortfall. The preference to later retirement was related with the gap between their actual age and legal retirement age. The pensioner who has retired would support it.The worker who＇s age was near legal retirement age would against it.But the workers whose age was far away to legal retirement age weredivided. High skilled labors were against it while low skilled labors were for it. Retired people and working people have different opinions because the burden of supporting the old-aged and the pension profit are different. Working people＇ s opinions are divided because the negative understanding of later retirement and the different understanding of wage increasing rate, social status and the sense of achievement.The resistance to reform was mainly from working people who are near legal retirement age and the low skilled labors. Government should concentrate on giving a successfully persuasion to the op-ponents, pay attention to their education and training, and improve the quality of those who support the later retirement.

关 键 词：养老保险 养老金亏空 延迟退休 个体偏好 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]