降尺度方法在东亚气候预测中的应用  

Application of Downscaling Methods in the East Asian Climate Prediction

作　　者：孙建奇[1,2,3] 马洁华 陈活泼[1,2] 汪君 于恩涛[1,2] 田宝强 SUN Jianqi;MA Jiehua;CHEN Huopo;WANG Jun;YU Entao;TIAN Baoqiang(Nansen Zhu International Research Centre,institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing 210044;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京100029 [2]气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]中国科学院气候变化研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《大气科学》2018年第4期806-822,共17页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目41522503;41421004;公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201306026~~

摘　　要：东亚气候变异十分复杂,全球动力预测系统对该地气候异常的预测能力偏低,如何进一步提高东亚地区气候异常的预测水平是一个非常重要的科学和现实需求问题。为此,近些年一系列的动力和统计降尺度方法得以发展。本文主要回顾了这些降尺度方法在东亚气候预测研究和实时预测中的应用。首先,文中简要介绍了我国目前应用于实时预测的全球动力预测系统及其性能,这是开展降尺度的科学和技术基础;在此基础上,从区域模式物理过程参数化方案的评估与遴选、区域模式在东亚气候预测中的应用两个方面,对于动力降尺度方法的发展和应用做了回顾;在统计降尺度的综述中,本文主要关注了东亚夏季汛期和冬季气候异常的预测,特别是针对东亚冬季气候异常,本文中提出了新的高效的统计与动力相结合的预测方法。最后,展望了短期气候预测需要进一步深入研究的科学和技术问题。Variability of the East Asian climate is complicated, and the skill of the global dynamical prediction system is quite low over East Asia. Therefore, how to improve the climate prediction over East Asia is of highly scientifical and practical necessity. For this reason, a series of dynamical and statistical downscaling schemes have been developed for East Asian climate prediction research and real-time prediction in recent years, and these schemes are reviewed in this paper. We first introduce the real-time global dynamical prediction systems in China and their prediction capabilities, which are the scientific and technological basis for further development of downscaling methods. Further, recent studies on the evaluation and selection of physical parameterization schemes in regional climate models and their applications in the East Asian climate prediction are systematically reviewed. In the review of statistical downscaling methods, we mainly focus on researches on the East Asian summer and winter climate predictions. In addition, a new and skillful statistical-dynamical hybrid prediction method for East Asian winter climate prediction is developed. Finally, a number of scientific and technological questions that require further studies in the East Asian climate prediction are highlighted.

关 键 词：短期气候预测 全球动力预测系统 区域气候模式 统计降尺度 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]