基于广义随机Petri网的突发事件网络舆情演化模型  

Evolution Model of Website Public Opinion in Emergency Based on Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

作　　者：田世海[1] 孙美琪 张家毓 TIAN Shi- hai;SUN Mei- qi;ZHANG Jia-yu(School of Management,Harbin University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《情报科学》2018年第8期106-111,共6页Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70873029);黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目(G201203);黑龙江省博士后科研启动资金资助项目(LBH-Q12065)

摘　　要：【目的/意义】准确掌握突发事件网络舆情的演化规律,提高政府应对能力,避免事态恶化是刻不容缓的课题。【方法/过程】本文首先从生命周期和社会燃烧视角,将突发事件网络舆情演化的各个阶段分别按照"燃烧物质、助燃剂、点火物质"集合形式进行结构化描述,探究演化过程中各阶段的关键属性以及属性之间的紧密联系。在此基础上根据广义随机Petri网理论,构建突发事件网络舆情演化的GSPN模型。最后以"山东非法疫苗事件"为例从事件代表性、谣言煽动性、情绪交融性三个方面评测演化系统的性能。【结果/结论】验证模型有效性,揭示其中的变动规律及均衡状态,为相关部门引导舆情良性发展,防范舆情失控提供决策参考。【Purpose/significance】The study of website public opinion in emergency plays an important role in preventingpublic cosing control, reducing social risks and providing competitive intelligence.【Method/process】According to life cycleand social combustion theory, each stage of website public opinion evolution is structurally described, the description con-sists of three key attributes such as＂combustion material, combustion agent, ignition material＂and the relationship be-tween all attributes is analyzed. The Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets（GSPN） is applied to model the evolution of websitepublic opinion in emergency, and the corresponding Markov chain is established based on isomorphic relation betweenGSPN and Markov chain. Taking＂China Shandong illegal vaccine scandal＂as an example. The equilibrium state and fluc-tuation pattern of the system are evaluated from three aspects： event representation, rumor provocation and emotional inte-gration.【Result/conclusion】The model is valid and decision making references are given.

关 键 词：网络舆情 社会燃烧理论 马尔科夫链 广义随机PETRI网 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]