电力与东道国经济发展的关系研究——基于“一带一路”倡议背景  

Research on Relationship Between Electricity and Economic Development of the Host Country——Based on the “The Belt and the Road”

作　　者：许长新[1] 王豹 林剑婷[1] XU Chang - xin;WANG Bao;LIN Jian - ting(Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2018年第8期1080-1085,共6页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:51279058);国家社科基金项目(编号:14CJL010)

摘　　要：以"一带一路"沿线48个国家27年的数据为样本,构建以经济增长、电力消费、资本存量和总就业人员数四要素的生产函数,采用基于误差修正的面板协整方法检验电力消费与各区域各国经济发展之间的关系,并对两者之间进行格兰杰因果关系检验。结果表明:样本内48国电力消费与经济增长存在协整关系,短期内存在GDP→电力消费单向因果关系,长期内存在电力消费→GDP的单向因果关系。将48国分成南亚、东南亚、中东欧、西亚北非和其他国家5个区域分别研究,结果显示,长期内5个区域均存在电力消费→GDP单向因果关系,短期内只有南亚和西亚北非存在GDP→电力消费的单向因果关系。Taking 27 years of data from 48 countries along the＂The Belt and the Road＂as a sample,a production function based on economic growth,electricity consumption,capital stock,and total number of employed people was constructed and tested using a panel cointegration method based on error correction. The relationship between electricity consumption and the economic development of various countries in each region,and the Granger causality test between the two were studied. The results showed that there was a cointegration relationship between the electricity consumption of the 49 countries in the sample and economic growth. In the short term,there was a one-way causal relationship between GDP and electricity consumption. In the long term,there was a one-way causal relationship between electricity consumption and GDP. The 49 countries were divided into five regions： South Asia,Southeast Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,West Asia,North Africa and other countries. The results showed that in the long term,there was a one-way causal relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in all five regions. In the short term,there was only a one-way causal relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in South Asia and West Asia.

关 键 词：电力消费 经济增长 面板协整 格兰杰因果检验 一带一路 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]