基于区域传输矩阵和PM_2.5达标约束的大气容量计算方法  

Capacity Simulation Method Based on Regional Transfer Matrix and PM_(2.5) Concentration Target Constraint

作　　者：李敏辉 廖程浩 杨柳林 曾武涛 唐喜斌 LI Min-hui;LIAO Cheng-hao;YANG Liu-lin;ZENG Wu-tao;TANG Xi-bin(Guangdong Provincial Academy of Environmental Science,Guangzhou 510045,China;Guangdong Provincial Regional Atmospheric Environmental Quality Research Center,Guangzhou 510045,China;Guangdong Provincial Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Management and Policy Simulation.Guangzhou 510045,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省环境科学研究院,广州510045 [2]广东省区域大气环境质量科学研究中心,广州510045 [3]广东省环境保护大气环境管理与政策模拟重点实验室,广州510045

出　　处：《环境科学》2018年第8期3485-3491,共7页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAC21B04);重大环保专项资金项目(2110203)

摘　　要：大气环境容量是环保规划中的重要参考指标.为满足PM_(2.5)的达标,在传统的容量计算方法基础上,筛选不利气象年份,结合CAMx-PSAT模式计算的区域传输结果,优化广东省各城市的大气环境容量分配,并综合分析各城市超载情况,模拟容量情景下的PM_(2.5)浓度.结果表明,在全省各地市PM_(2.5)≤35μg·m-3的约束下,广东省SO2容量约为68万t;NOx约为135万t;NH3约为46万t;PM_(2.5)约为51万t.2014年广东省SO2排放超出容量10%,NOx超出12%,NH3超出9%,一次PM_(2.5)超出20%.污染物种超载数量较多的城市有广州、佛山、中山、清远.当实现容量情景时,全省PM_(2.5)年均浓度约在30μg·m-3,各城市年均值都达到国家空气质量二级标准.Atmospheric Environmental Quality Research Center, Guangzhou 510045, China; 3. Guangdong Provincial Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Management and Policy Simulation, Guangzhou 510045, China） Abstract： Atmospheric environmental capacity is an important reference in environmental planning. To meet the PM25 standard, a new method is proposed to balance the capacity among cities of Guangdong, with screening of the most unfavorable meteorological year and combining it with the regional transportation calculated by the CAMx-PSAT module. Pollutant overloading and capacity scenarios were also calculated. The results showed that, under the constraints of the cities＇ annual PM25 ≤35 μg· m -3, the capacities of SO2 , NO, NH3 , and PM2.5 in Guangdong were about 6. 8 x 105 tons, 1.35 x 106 tons, 4.6 x 105 tons, and 5. 1 x 105 tons, respectively. Based on the benchmark scenario, SO2 emissions in Guangdong were overloaded by 10% , and the emissions of NOx, NH3, and PM25 exceeded by 12% , 9% , and 20% , respectively, compared to those of the capacity scenario. Ranked by the number of overloaded species in Guangdong, the cities of Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhongshan, and Qingyuan were on top. When achieving the capacity scenario, the annual PM25 concentration in Guangdong was about 30 μg·m-3, which meets the national secondary ambient air quality standard.

关 键 词：大气环境容量 空气质量模拟 区域传输 超载率 广东省 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]