省直管县是否能够显著影响经济增长？--基于荟萃回归分析方法  

Can Counties under Direct Provincial Administration Significantly Affect the Economic Growth?——Based on Meta-regression Analysis Method

作　　者：郭艳娇 王振宇 Guo Yanjiao Wang Zhenyu

机构地区：[1]辽宁财政科学研究所 [2]辽宁大学经济学院 [3]辽宁大学地方财政研究院

出　　处：《财政研究》2018年第6期32-41,共10页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社科基金资助“优化分税制财政管理体制研究”(1IBJY130);国家“特支计划”资助项目“我国地方财政可持续发展研究”阶段性成果;辽宁省第七期高等院校攀登学者资助项目.

摘　　要：财政省直管县试点改变了市管县体制下省、市、县三级政府的财税制度安排,主要包括政府间收入划分、支出划分和财政转移支付等方面。这种体制改革试点是否会促进经济增长,现有基于原始数据的定性、定量分析的结论并未达成一致。本文以实证研究已获得的研究结论为样本,采用荟萃回归分析方法进行分析。研究结果显示:从显著性看(包括正向和负向),与样本地区的具体特征基本无关,从正向显著性看,第一产业占比较大的地区执行省直管县效果较好,而经济发展水平较高的地区效果相对较弱;不同地区省直管县对经济增长影响的显著性程度和正向显著性程度均存在差异。The Pilot Model of counties under direct provincial administration has changed the 3-tier fiscal and taxation system arrangements at the provincial, municipal and county levels under the previous municipal-county administration system. The existing qualitative and quantitative analyses based on the original data have failed to reach agreement whether this pilot reform will promote local economic growth. This paper uses the meta- regression analysis method to analyze the existing research conclusions. The results show that： Counties under direct provincial administration has a significant general impact on economic growth, which is independent of the specific research characteristics; Direct provincial administration has a more positive effect in areas where the primary industry is relatively large, while in areas with higher levels of economic development the effect is relatively weak; The effect of direct provincial administration is various in different counties.

关 键 词：省直管县 经济增长 荟萃回归分析 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]