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作 者:刘先忠[1] 李华[1] 郝一正[1] 程燕林[2]
机构地区:[1]北京应用物理与计算数学研究所,北京100094 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190
出 处:《科研管理》2016年第S1期636-643,共8页Science Research Management
摘 要:为了客观评价科研项目中相关技术的研究水平和技术进步,本研究以爆炸装置的威力评估为例,提出了在同一坐标系下,衡量相关技术研究水平高低、技术进步大小的测评模型。该模型将相关技术的不确定度Ui对项目目标性能不确定度U的影响量(d U)i作为技术水平i高低的评价标准,将技术攻关前后(d U)i的差值δ((d U))i作为技术进步的评价标准。通过介绍建模过程、相关数据的获取方法、非相邻层级技术间不确定度传递的计算方法和实例应用证实了该模型的可操作性和有效性,并分析了该模型优缺点及其应用前景。A Scientific Research Level and Technical Progress Evaluation Model for measuring the level of related technologies in the same coordinate system has been proposed,taking the power assessment of explosive devices as an example. In order to avoid artificiality and limitation of common evaluation methods,the model takes(dU) i,the influence of the uncertainty( Ui) of technology i on the target performance uncertainty(U),as the evaluation criteria of the technical level i,and takes δ((dU))i,the difference of(dU) i before and after the technology research,as evaluation criteria of technical progress. The operability and effectiveness of this model are confirmed as the model establishment process,the data acquisition,the way to calculate the uncertainty and an application example of the model are given. The advantages and disadvantages of the model and the application prospect of the model are also described.
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