数字经济对中国经济增长和非农就业影响研究――基于投入占用产出模型  

Impact of Digital Economy on China's Economic and Non-agricultural Employment——Based on Input-occupancy-output Model

作　　者：夏炎 王会娟[3] 张凤 郭剑锋 XIA Yan;WANG Huijuan;ZHANG Feng;GUO Jianfeng(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2018年第7期707-716,共10页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71573248、71671180); 2017年度中央财经大学“青年教师发展基金”项目(QJJ1703); 2018年度教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(1359)

摘　　要：随着数字化浪潮的涌现,数字经济必将对中国的经济产生更为深远的影响,表现在不仅将促进国内生产总值(GDP)更快速的增长,还将提升生产率、消费结构转型、优化投资结构、提升企业出口规模、提高人力资本质量,并引领新型智慧城市的发展。文章构建了非竞争型就业投入占用产出模型,采用支出法GDP(即最终支出的3个方面:消费、资本形成总额和出口总额)核算了我国数字经济的经济规模,最终估计3类支出所形成的经济规模分别对就业的影响效应。研究发现:(1)ICT(信息和通信技术)产业与传统产业的融合能够带动经济规模的扩张,特别是网络消费的增长,以此产生的消费导向型就业效应正在逐步扩大(使得非农就业占全部就业人数比例从2014年的15.2%增长到2016年的20.2%),其中未来应特别关注的发展领域应聚焦在医疗健康、文化娱乐和交通通讯。(2)数字经济对技术密集型制造业的就业影响强于劳动密集型和资本密集型,同时在生产型服务业中也表现出了强有力的就业影响效应,并促使我国产业经济从劳动密集型向技术密集型的转型。(3)中国的数字化转型将带来生产率的提升和创新的提速,并促进职业技能的培养,促使人力资本从低成本优势向职业技能优势转型,从而培养更高技能的劳动力队伍。With the emergence of digital technology, the digital economy will have far-reaching impact on Chinese economy, which will not only promote the faster growth of gross domestic product（GDP）, but also increase productivity, transform consumption composition, optimize investment structure, enhance the scale of enterprise export, improve the quality of human capital, and lead the development of intelligent cities. This study estimates the scale of Chinese digital economy by using a non-competitive input-occupancy-output model, including the effects of three types of expenditure（consumption, capital formation, and exports） on employment. The results show that, first, the integration of information and communication technology industry and the traditional industry can drive the expansion of economic scale,especially the increasing of network consumption, so that the consumption-oriented employment is expanding gradually（the proportion of non-agricultural employment of total employment from 15.2% in 2014 increases to 20.2% in 2016）. Among them, the health industry, culture and entertainment industry, and communication industry take a leading development. Second, the impact of digital economy on technologyintensive manufacturing industries employment is the strongest. At the same time, the digital economy also promotes the transformation of industrial economy from a labor-intensive to technology-intensive industry. Third, the digital transformation brings the increase of productivity and innovation, and promotes the cultivation of vocational skills. The digital economy is conducive to the cultivation of the higher-skilled employment, and transformation of human capital from low cost-oriented to vocational skill-oriented.

关 键 词：数字经济 经济增长 非农就业 投入占用产出技术 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2F49