2018年上半年玉米市场形势分析与下半年展望  

Maize Market in the First Half of 2018 and Its Outlook for the Second Half

作　　者：习银生 杨丽 吴天龙 Xi Yinsheng;Yang Li;Wu Tianlong(Research Center for Rural Economy,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100810)

机构地区：[1]农业农村部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《农业展望》2018年第7期4-10,共7页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：2018年以来,中国继续推进玉米生产结构调整,但受比较效益影响,播种面积有小幅回升;国内玉米价格先涨后跌,但仍高于上年同期水平;消费需求继续较快增长,产需缺口明显扩大;国内外价差扩大,玉米及其替代品进口增长;全球玉米库存下降,国际价格持续反弹。预计2018年国内玉米单产可能有所下降,总产量基本稳定;国内玉米价格先弱后强,新玉米价格有望走高;玉米消费需求将继续增长,并再创历史新高;国内外玉米价差难以明显缩小,玉米及其替代品进口压力依然较大。Since 2018, China has been promoting the adjustment of maize production structure. However,the sown area of China＇s maize increased slightly under the influence of comparative benefits. Domestic maize price rose first and then fell, but it was higher than the same period of previous year. As the consumption demand of maize continued growing rapidly, the gap between the production and demand expanded significantly.Because of the widened price gap between domestic and foreign maize, the import of maize and its substitutes increased in China. Global maize stocks declined, and international prices continued to rebound. It was expected that, in 2018, China＇s maize yield might reduce but total production would be basically stable; the price of domestic maize would remain weak first then become strong, and the price of new maize would go higher; the consumption demand of maize would continue growing and create a new high; the price gap between domestic and foreign maize would be hard to significantly narrow, so imports of maize and its alternatives would remain at a high level.

关 键 词：玉米 生产 消费 市场价格 进口 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]