复杂系统安全性建模、分析、控制与仿真研究  

Research Summary on Safety Model,Analysis,Control and Simulate for Complex Systems

作　　者：胡剑波[1] 李俊 郑磊[1] 邢晓波 HU Jian-bo;LI Jun;ZHENG Lei;XING Xiao-bo(School of Equipment Management and UAV Engineering,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’ an 710051,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院,西安710051

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2018年第7期1-9,13,共10页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划基金(2014CB744900);国家社会科学基金资助项目(17GGL270)

摘　　要：复杂系统安全性的分析与控制要解决复杂系统危险源识别、不安全动作分析、危险致因因素识别、控制策略制定等任务,是一个包括系统建模、行为分析、控制作用设计以及系统仿真模拟等在内的复杂动态迭代过程。以系统安全性为主题,用系统思维方式来研究复杂系统安全性建模、安全性分析、安全性控制等问题。通过比较传统模型和系统思维模型,指出采用FRAM、STAMP等事故模型的必然性。通过比较传统分析和系统思维分析,指出采用FRAM、STPA等分析方法的优越性。依据复杂系统的安全性模型与分析需求,提出复杂系统安全性仿真系统整体架构和基于模型偏离与机器学习的安全性仿真方法,指出仿真方法在安全性分析中的重要作用。Man y tasks about the safety of the complex systems,such as identifying hazards,analyzing unsafe actions,finding out the causing factors and making the proper control strategies,should be solved such that a dynamic iterating process should be contained from system modeling,action analyzing,control designing and system simulating. The systemic thinking idea is employed in the modeling,analyzing,controlling and simulating for the systemic safety. The inevitability for the adopting of FRAM and SRAMP is derived by comparing traditional and systemic model. The advantage for the adopting of FRAM and STPA is derived by comparing traditional and systemic analysis method.Finally,a simulation system＇s whole framework for the safety of the complex systems is configured with the ordinary tools,and issues are discussed about the role of safety simulation based on model-deviation and machine-learning.

关 键 词：安全性分析 安全性控制 安全性模型 安全性仿真 

分 类 号：TP311.563[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论] TJ02[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]