空域调整方案安全风险评估方法研究  

Study on safety risk assessment method of airspace adjustment program and expand application

作　　者：向征[1] 祝琳芸 张文军 钟建华 XIANG Zheng;ZHU Lin-yun;ZHANG Wen-jun;ZHONG Jlan-hua(School of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307;The Second Research Institute of CAAC,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航飞行学院空中交通管理学院,四川广汉618307 [2]中国民航局第二研究所,成都610041

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第4期447-451,457,共6页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：中国民航飞行学院青年基金(高空管制区域下限调整运行模式研究)

摘　　要：为了确保空域调整后空域结构的安全性,需要预判设计的空域调整方案是否在合理的安全风险以内.提出四种空域调整方案安全风险评估方法,专家评估法、计算机仿真法、雷达模拟机验证法和运行监控评估法.通过对比得出不同方法的优缺点,为合理选择评估方法提供依据.与此同时,提出上述方法可以用于雷暴天气下,航空器绕飞雷暴时的改航航路规划的安全风险评估.In order to ensure the safety of airspace structures,it is necessary to predict whether the airspace adjustment scheme is within reasonable risk percent. In this paper,three safety risk assessment methods were proposed that were expert evaluation method,computer simulation method radar simulator verification method and operational monitoring and evaluation method. By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of different methods,this paper provided the basis for rational selection of evaluation methods. In the meantime,the above method was proposed to be applied to the safety risk assessment of the planning of the route alteration of an aircraft during a thunderstorm. In the meantime,the above method was proposed to be applied to the safety risk assessment of the planning of the route alteration,when an aircraft was detouring a thunderstorm.

关 键 词：安全风险评估 专家评估法 计算机仿真法 雷达模拟机验证法 运行监控评估法 绕飞雷暴 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]