中国多地区低碳能源技术的优化选择  

The optimal pathway of low carbon technologies of multiregions in China

作　　者：彭盼 任心原 范英[2] 朱磊[2] PENG Pan;REN Xinyuan;FAN Ying;ZHU Lei(China Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Group（CECEP）,Beijing 100082,China;School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]中国节能环保集团有限公司,北京100082 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2018年第8期1968-1982,共15页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71673019,71133005,71690245,71273253)~~

摘　　要：自巴黎气候大会顺利召开之后，全球各国在立即开展相关措施应对气候变化上已达成更深的共识．人类需要实施更多的努力减缓温室气体排放，以此将大气中温室气体浓度控制在450ppmv以下，将很大可能达到IPCC提出的21世纪末全球平均温度上升在2摄氏度以内的预期目标．全球各国的经济和技术发展存在较大的差异，甚至像中国这样最大的发展中国家，其不同地区的经济发展和资源禀赋也存在较大的差异．因此，非常有必要构建相关多区域模型研究全球乃至中国不同地区在应对气候变化背景下经济发展和能源技术演变的规律．本文基于全球多区域综合评估模型（WITCH）建立全球一中国多区域WITCH—China模型，根据地区经济发展和资源禀赋的差异性，将中国地区划分至东、中、西三部分，以研究在全球温控目标下中国不同地区的能源技术演化和碳排放路径的变化规律，同时对比中国和其他世界各地区的宏观经济水平受到气候变化影响的差异性．After the successful conclusion of Paris Climate Conference （COP21）, countries are now at- tempting to identify implementation measures to address climate issues. In order to achieve the 2-degress target, human needs to make more efforts on mitigation measures to control atmospheric carbon concen- tration under 450 ppmv. Due to the different levels of economic development, countries, even for the different regions in China, have different local development pathways of low carbon technologies. There- fore, it is of great significance to study the evolution of economic development and energy technologies in multi-regions by establishing multi-region integrated assessment model （IAM）. This article extends the WITCH model to a Global-Chinese multi-regional IAM model, named as WITCH-China, to study the evolution of Chinese multi-regional economic development, energy consumption and low-carbon energy technology development. This may provide useful insights for scholars and policy designers to forecast the future consumption pathways of low-carbon technologies of different regions in China, and contribute to the creation of strategic development plans related to the diffusion of carbon-free technologies throughout the world and China.

关 键 词：综合评估模型 低碳能源技术 多区域分析 气候变化 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]