大数据环境下网络舆情反转机理与预测研究  

Inversion Mechanism and Prediction of Network Public Opinion in Big Data Environment

作　　者：夏一雪[1] 兰月新[1] 刘茉[1] 冯晓阳[1] 黄鑫 连芷萱 Xia Yixue;Lan Yuexin;Liu Mo;Feng Xiaoyang;Huang Xin;Lian Zhixuan(The Chinese People＇s Armed Police Force Academy,Langfang 06500)

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队学院,廊坊065000

出　　处：《情报杂志》2018年第8期92-96,共5页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：河北省高等学校青年拔尖人才计划"面向舆情大数据的社会安全事件风险感知与智能防控机制研究"(编号:BJ2018217);河北省社会科学发展研究课题"基于社交媒体大数据的雄安新区社会安全事件情报预警研究"(编号:201804120407);全国统计科学研究重点项目"舆情大数据环境下突发事件民意监测与评估研究(编号:2017LZ37);公安理论及软科学研究计划重点项目"面向大数据的涉恐涉稳网络舆情风险预测与情报感知研究"(编号:2018LLYJWJXY006)

摘　　要：[目的/意义]基于网络舆情大数据特征,研究网络舆情反转效应,分析大数据环境下网络舆情反转机理和反转预测机理,为网络舆情治理提供参考依据。[方法/过程]定性分析大数据环境下网络舆情反转机理,基于微分方程构建网络舆情反转机理模型,通过数值仿真定量研究网络舆情反转效应。在此基础上,分析网络舆情反转预测机理,提出反转动态评估方法。[结论/结果]经过实证分析得出构建的网络舆情反转机理模型是可行的,基于此开展的反转预测能够较好预测舆情演化趋势,并根据反转评估了解舆情反转程度,从而为政府治理网络舆情反转效应提供参考依据。[Purpose/Significance]This paper studies the inversion effect of network public opinion based on big data characteristics,analyzes the inversion mechanism and inversion prediction mechanism of network public opinion in big data environment,and provides reference for the management of network public opinion.[Method/Process]Through a qualitative analysis of network public opinion inversion mechanism in big data environment,this paper constructs a network public opinion inversion mechanism model based on the theory of differential equation and studies the inversion effect of network public opinion through numerical simulation.On this basis,the paper analyzes inversion prediction mechanism of network public opinion and puts forward an inversion dynamic evaluation method.[Result/Conclusion]Through empirical analysis,it is concluded that network public opinion inversion mechanism model constructed is feasible,and inversion prediction is helpful for predicting the evolution trend of public opinion and understanding the inversion degree of public opinion according to the inversion evaluation,thus provides reference for the government to manage the inversion effect of network public opinion.

关 键 词：大数据 网络舆情 舆情反转 机理模型 舆情预测 

分 类 号：C912.6[经济管理]