灰色GM(1,1)模型在我国医疗费用预测研究中的应用  

Applications of Gray GM(1,1) Model in Stucdy of Predicting Medical Expenditure in China

作　　者：颜康康 淮明生[1] Yah Kangkang et al(Medical Service Division, Tianjin First Center Hospital, Tianjin, 30019)

机构地区：[1]天津市第一中心医院医务处,天津300192

出　　处：《医学与社会》2018年第8期37-39,共3页Medicine and Society

摘　　要：目的:研究灰色GM(1,1)模型在我国医疗费用预测中的可行性,为卫生行政部门制定科学策略提供依据。方法:应用灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国医疗费用数据建模并预测2016-2018年数据。结果:2016-2018年我国门诊均次费用预测结果分别为254.49元、273.63元、294.21元;2016-2018年住院均次费用分别为8907.12元、9484.93元、10100.21元。结论:灰色GM(1,1)模型可很好的模拟和预测我国医疗费用的变化趋势。通过预测可知我国医疗费用可能会继续增加,但增加幅度较低。政府和医院应采取措施降低医疗费用。Objective： To study the feasibility of GM（1,1） model in predicting the medical expenditure in China,and to provide scientific basis for the rational distribution of health resources. Methods： The data of the medical expenditure of our country in 2006-2015 were modeled and fitted by GM（1,1） model,and a further forecast of 2016-2018 was given. Results： The predicted incidence of average outpatient expense from 2016 to 2018 were 254.49 yuan,273.63 yuan,294.21 yuan. The predicted incidence of average inpatient expense from 2016 to 2018 were8907.12 yuan,9484.93 yuan,10100.21 yuan. Conclusion： GM（1,1） model can well simulate and predict the tendency of the medical expenditure in China. The medical expenditure of our country will continue increasing,but the growth rate will be smaller. Governments and hospitals should take various measures to reduce medical expenses.

关 键 词：医疗费用 预测 灰色GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]