基于实物期权的旅游项目投资分析  

Analysis of Tourism Project Investment Based on Real Option

作　　者：马薇薇[1] MA Weiwei(Department of Economics and Management,Bengbu College,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]蚌埠学院经济与管理系,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《长春大学学报》2018年第7期27-31,共5页Journal of Changchun University

基　　金：安徽省人文社科研究项目(113052015SK01);蚌埠学院校级项目(2017SK01zd)

摘　　要：对旅游项目的投资进行科学的决策,不但关系到投资人的利益,更涉及到整个旅游业的发展及国家的经济兴衰。传统旅游投资项目的评估因为其本身固有的弊端可能造成对旅游项目错误的估计。从实物期权角度出发,本文建立了二叉树和蒙特卡洛两种模型,对旅游项目投资进行模拟评估。论证了实物期权方法可以克服传统投资决策依靠主观判断而产生的缺陷,可确保投资决策的合理性及有效性,从而为投资者提供参考。Scientific decision-making on investment in tourism projects is not only related to the interests of investors,but also to the development of the whole tourism industry as well as the rise and fall of the country＇s economy.The evaluation of traditional tourism investment projects may cause people to overestimate or underestimate the value of tourism investment projects because of their inherent disadvantages. From the perspective of real option,this paper establishes two models of Binary Tree and Monte Carlo to make simulation evaluations on the tourism investment projects. It demonstrates that the real option method can overcome the defects caused by subjective judgment in traditional investment decisions,which can ensure the effectiveness and rationality of investment decisions,hoping to provide references for investors.

关 键 词：旅游项目 实物期权 二叉树模型 蒙特卡洛模型 

分 类 号：F592.61[经济管理—旅游管理]