铁路行包运到期限确定方法研究  

A Method of Railway Package and Parcel Transit Period

作　　者：荣文竽[1] 王泽 魏玉光[2] RONG Wenyu;WANG Ze;WEI Yuguang(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116001,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Bejing Jiaotong University,Bejing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116028 [2]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2018年第4期12-16,共5页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家铁路局科技研究计划资助项目(YJ2017-22)

摘　　要：从铁路行包管理系统中随机抽取行包运输跟踪信息基本数据,运用数理统计及回归分析方法,对铁路行包运到时间变化规律进行研究,提出了铁路行包运到期限的确定方法.与现行的《铁路旅客运输规程》规定的行包运到期限对比,在保证一定置信度水平条件下,具有显著的时效性优势.The basic data of transport tracking information is selected randomly from railway baggage and parcel transport management system. The change rule of the actual transit period of baggage and parcel is studied using the method of mathematical statistics and regression analysis. A new method of determining the promised transit period is proposed. Compared with the promised transit period of baggage and parcel specified by current railway regulations,the promised transit period determined through new method has a significant timeliness advantage under certain confidence level conditions.

关 键 词：铁路运输 行包运输 运到期限 回归分析 

分 类 号：U294.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]