基于模糊综合评价的新疆阿克苏河流域环境承载力研究  

Assessment of Water Environmental Carrying Capacity in Akesu River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

作　　者：魏光辉[1] 姜振盈[1] 张洛晨 WEI Guang-hui, JIANG Zhen-ying, ZHANG Luo-chen(Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Management Bureau, Korla 841000, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆塔里木河流域管理局,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《浙江水利水电学院学报》2018年第3期30-34,共5页Journal of Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助(201501059);国家自然科学基金资助(31400466;31370551);塔里木河流域阿克苏典型灌区地下资源调控研究(之阿瓦提灌区)资助项目(TGJAKSSKS-2015-002)

摘　　要：环境承载力全面反映了资源、社会、经济复合系统对人类活动的支撑力,更能体现可持续发展的水平和能力.以新疆阿克苏河流域为例,构建了环境承载力评价指标体系,并采用模糊综合评判法对其进行评价.结果表明:2012年,研究区环境承载力处于超载与严重超载的概率分别为25%与28%,模糊综合评判值为0.692 6,处于超载状态.据此建议为提高流域现状环境承载力,应加强流域水资源统一管理职能,强化落实三条红线,严格控制流域灌溉面积.Environmental carrying capacity reflects the supporting ability of the complex system of resources,society and economy to human activities,which can reflect the level and ability of sustainable development. Based on the case of Akesu River Basin,the evaluation index system of environmental carrying capacity is constructed in this paper,and the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted to realize comprehensive evaluation. The results show that the probability of overloading and serious overloading is 25% and 28% respectively,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation value is0. 692 6,which is in overload state. In order to improve the environmental carrying capacity of the basin,it is necessary to strengthen the unified management of water resources,strengthen the implementation of ＂three red lines＂,and to strictly control the irrigation area of the river basin.

关 键 词：阿克苏河流域 环境承载力 模糊综合评价 隶属度 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]