基于震源深度的极震区烈度评估模型  

SEISMIC INTENSITY EVALUATION MODEL IN MEIZOSEISMAL AREA BASED ON FOCAL DEPTH

作　　者：聂高众[1] 徐敬海 NIE Gao-zhong;XU Jing-hai(Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China;College of Geomatics Engineering,Nanjing University of Technology,Nanjing 210009,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029 [2]南京工业大学测绘科学与技术学院,南京210009

出　　处：《地震地质》2018年第3期611-621,共11页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK15B06)资助

摘　　要：震后极震区烈度的准确快速评估是地震应急决策与救援的基础性工作。文中首先收集整理了1966—2013年的215条震级>5.0的历史震例,基于输入参数可在震后快速获得的原则,通过分析极震区烈度与不同地震参数的相关性关系,通过拟合方法构建了1种面向地震应急的,以中国地震局正式发布的地震震级、震源深度为输入参数的极震区烈度快速评估模型。然后从统计的角度分析了该模型拟合的有效性,同时对2个输入参数进行了敏感性分析,表明该方法可在震后快速有效地估算极震区烈度。目前该模型在实际地震应急中已得到了初步应用,并取得了良好的效果。China is the country with the challenge of severe earthquake disaster. In order to mitigate the disaster and save lives,emergency response and rescue work after an earthquake are deployed and led by the Chinese governments at all level,the effectiveness of which has been proved. In such work,how to quickly evaluate the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is a crucial issue at the early period after the earthquake. It is the foundation to estimate the disaster losses and decide the scale of rescue teams and materials. However,at the early period only a few physical parameters of the earthquake can be acquired and some of them may even be inaccurate.An evaluation model of seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is investigated and presented by statistic method in this study. After an earthquake there are four authoritative parameters officially released by China Earthquake Administration generally within ten minutes： earthquake magnitude（ MS）,focal depth,latitude and longitude position,and the occurrence time. They are good candidate input parameters of the evaluation model. We collect the information of 215 historical earthquake occurring in China from 1966 to 2013,including： The four parameters and the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area. Through statistical analysis we find the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area has high correlation with the earthquake magnitude（ MS） and the focal depth and then select them as the formal input parameters. After further investigation a generalized linear model is built to fit the relationship between the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area, earthquake magnitude（ MS） and the focal depth.The effectiveness of the model is validated by the Sig value and F value from theoretic perspective. The validation also includes the application of the model in real earthquakes occurring from 2014 to 2017. After the earthquakes,the seismic intensities in meizoseismal area have been quickly estimated and used in the command of national earthquake disaster emergency reli

关 键 词：地震应急 极震区烈度 烈度评估模型 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]