新疆克州地区气温年代际变化及均生函数预报模型的应用  

Decadal Temperature Variation and Application of Mean Generating Function Model to Short-term Climate Prediction in Kezhou District

作　　者：阿布力米提.司马义 何敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州气象局,阿图什845350 [2]国家气候中心

出　　处：《气象》2002年第9期49-53,共5页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：讨论了克州地区气温突变及年代际变化特征 ,并利用均生函数预测模型对克州地区气温进行预测试验。 1 995～ 2 0 0 1年预测试验表明 ,均生函数预测模型可以较好地拟合出气温的气候变化趋势 ,对年。Temperature abrupt changes and its decadal variation characteristics in Kezhou district, Xinjiang are discussed. A mean generating function model is used in the experiment of short-term climate prediction.The results show that this model can correctly simulate the climate trend in the period of 1995-2000, and it also has a good ability in the predication of seasonal and annual temperature variation.

关 键 词：新疆 克州地区 年代际变化 气温变化 均生函数 预测 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.3