基于基尼系数法的全国十大水资源一级区水资源与经济社会要素时空匹配分析  

Temporal and Spatial Matching Analysis of Water and Socio-economic Resources of Ten First-class Water Resources Regions in China Based Gini Coefficient Method

作　　者：杜军凯[1] 李晓星[2] 贾仰文[1] 仇亚琴[1] 张海涛[1] 陈静[2] DU Jun -kai1, LI Xiao -xing2 ,JIA Yang- wen1, QIU Ya- qin1 ,ZHANG Hai -tao1, CHEN Jing2(1. State Key Laboratocy of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institu- te of Water Resources ＆ Hydropower Research （IWHR） , Beijing 100038, China; 2. Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 10001)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2018年第6期1-8,共8页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：水资源是经济发展的一项具有约束性、先导性、控制性要素的基础资源。定量分析水资源与经济社会要素的匹配程度,揭示水资源对经济社会发展的约束状态,可为水资源的可持续利用提供重要的技术支撑。以全国十大水资源一级区为研究对象,以2004~2013年的各一级区水资源、土地资源、人口和区域生产总值等数据系列为基础,计算水资源与人口、土地、产值等经济社会要素的基尼系数,并分析其变化趋势。结果表明,目前水资源分布与产值分布的不匹配是我国经济社会发展最强的水资源约束,在全国范围上破解水资源短缺问题须将"以水定产"作为首要的考虑;不同一级区面临的水资源约束各有特点,应采取针对性的措施以破解水资源短缺问题;水资源一级区水资源与经济社会发展要素的基尼系数普遍小于省(市)的基尼系数,解决水问题应更加重视在流域层面对水资源的统一规划、合理配置和统筹管理。Quantitatively analyzing the matching coefficient of water resources and Socio-economic resources and revealing the degree of water resources constraints on economic and social development can provide important technical support to the sustainable use of water resources. Based on the data series of water resources quantity,land area,population and Gross Domestic Product（ GDP）in the first-class water resources（ FCWR） regions from 2004 to 2013,the Gini coefficients and corresponding variation trends are calculated in each region. The results showed that：（ 1） the current conflict between distribution of water resources and distribution of GDP was the primary water resources constraints of development of social-economic. It is necessary to address water scarcity issues according to the water constraints on GDP.（ 2） Different targeted measures should be taken to deal with to water shortages in the ten first-class water resource regions based the specific water issue of each region.（ 3） The Gini coefficients of the elements in the FCWR are generally less than those of the provincial regions. More attention about unified planning,rational allocation and overall management of the water resources in the basin level should be paid to guarantee the sustainable development of economy and society.

关 键 词：基尼系数 水资源 人口 土地 产值 趋势分析 

分 类 号：X37[环境科学与工程—环境工程]