基于威布尔分布的工程机械主动再制造时机预测  

Active remanufacturing timing prediction of engineering machinery based on Weibull distribution

作　　者：刘清涛[1] 陈旭锋 王其锋[1] LIU Qing-tao;CHEN Xu-feng;WANG Qi-feng(Key Laboratory tor Highway Construction Technology and Equipment of Ministry of Education,Chang＇an University,Xi＇an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学道路施工技术与装备教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第3期958-964,共7页Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51305042);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20130205120004)

摘　　要：为准确预测工程机械主动再制造的时机,确定合适的再制造时间,基于产品生命周期理论,综合考虑了产品的原始价值、再制造成本和维修成本,以单位服役时间内的期望费用最小为优化目标,建立了再制造毛坯回收时机预测模型。利用两参数威布尔分布来表征产品失效率的函数,通过最小二乘法对形状参数和位置参数进行估计,采用中位秩法计算累积失效分布函数。最后,以徐工XE80A型挖掘机再制造时机的确定为例,验证了所建决策模型的可行性。In order to accurately predict active remanufacturing timing of the construction machinery and to determine the appropriate remanufacturing time,the prediction model of remanufacturing recycling time is established in terms of product life cycle theory,which takes the minimum expectation cost within unit service time as the optimization goal,and comprehensively considers the original value of the product,remanufacturing cost and maintenance cost. Two-parameters of Weibull distribution is used to represent the function of product inefficiencies,for which shape parameters and location parameters are estimated by the least square method, and its cumulative failure distribution function is calculated by the middle rank method. Finally,the feasibility of the decisionmaking model is verified by taking the XE80 A excavator made by XCMG as an example.

关 键 词：主动再制造 回收时机预测 威布尔分布 决策模型 

分 类 号：TH122[机械工程—机械设计及理论]