适度生育水平与生育政策调整  

Moderate Fertility Level and Policy Adjustmen

作　　者：薛君[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南师范大学青少年问题研究中心,河南新乡453007

出　　处：《人口与社会》2018年第3期72-80,共9页Population and Society

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CRK004);河南省教育厅人文社会科学项目(2017-ZZJH-250);河南师范大学教育科学培育基金;二孩政策计划生育服务项目阶段性成果

摘　　要：利用学界有关研究成果,在生育水平维度对包括"单独二孩"和"全面两孩"在内的生育政策调整进行了评估,得出不管是实际生育数据,或者基于生育意愿推测出一定时期内的生育水平,还是国内外人口转变规律都支持生育政策调整"遇冷"的结论,而生育政策的"遇冷"从另一方面说明了家庭意愿生育水平的内部约束正在逐步取代国家计划生育的外部控制,成为影响我国未来生育水平的关键因素。根据适度生育水平的判断标准,基于不同学者对未来生育水平的预测和2016年的实际生育数据,全面放开的生育政策对促进人口自身长期均衡发展、促进人口与经济社会、资源环境协调可持续发展具有积极意义。This paper uses relevant research findings to assess the fertility policy adjustment, including the selective two-child policy and the universal two-child policy. The results show that fertility policy adjustment does not meet the expectations. Evaluation of fertility policy adjustment shows that the internal constraints of the family fertility plan are gradually replacing the external control of the national fertility plan and become a key factor affecting the future fertility of our country. Finally, according to the judgment standard of moderate fertility level, based on the prediction of the future fertility level by different scholars and the actual fertility data in 2016, the full liberalized birth policy has positive significance to promote the long-term balanced development of the population itself and the coordinated and sustainable development of the population, the economy and the society and the resources and environment.

关 键 词：生育政策调整 适度生育水平 全面放开 计划生育政策 全面两孩 生育意愿 政策评估 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]