基于模糊模式识别的海外油气储量开发风险性评价方法  

A risk evaluation method based on fuzzy pattern recognition for the development of overseas oil and gas reserves

作　　者：朱学谦[1] 山珊 ZHU Xueqian;SHAN Shan(Sinopec Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development,Beijing 100083,China;College of Petroleum Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]中国石油大学(北京)石油工程学院,北京102249

出　　处：《中国海上油气》2018年第3期116-121,共6页China Offshore Oil and Gas

基　　金："十三五"国家科技重大专项33项目005课题007专题"油气资产价值评估体系研究(编号:2016ZX05033-005-007)"部分研究成果

摘　　要：海外油气储量开发风险性评价,是目标区块正式投入开发前保障项目获得开发效益的重要工作。针对海外油气储量特点和开发需求,基于实际已开发项目资料,通过分析开发投入和成本、影响因素和开发收益三者之间的关系,利用数学统计分析方法,建立了海外油气储量开发风险性分级评价体系。根据模糊模式识别基本原理,构建了不同风险性等级标准向量,并提出了反映单个开发项目储量特点的比较向量;通过计算比较向量与不同风险性等级标准向量的贴近度,来确定目标开发项目的风险性等级。实际应用表明,基于模糊模式识别的海外油气储量开发风险性评价,可以为海外油气项目的开发决策提供科学依据。The risk evaluation for the development of overseas oil and gas reserves is an important item of work for guarantee of development profits that should be in advance of the formal production of targeted blocks.According to characteristics and development demands of overseas oil and gas,an evaluation classification system for risks of overseas oil and gas reserves development has been established through mathematical statistics analysis which roots in the actual data from developed projects and the analysis of the relationship among development investment and costs,influential factors and development profits.Based on the basic principles of the fuzzy pattern recognition,standard vectors to grade risks have been formed and comparative vectors to reflect reserve features of single development projects put forward;the risk grades can be determined in view of a match between comparative vectors and standard vectors of different risk grades.Actual application shows that the risk evaluation for overseas oil and gas reserve development based on the fuzzy pattern recognition can act as a scientific evidence for decision-making on the development of overseas oil and gas projects.

关 键 词：海外油气项目 评价体系 模糊模式识别 风险性 分级评价 

分 类 号：TE341[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]